Some of us might remember that one of the biggest heartbreaks of the 2006 election was when Darcy Burner came just short of toppling Dave Reichert from the WA-08 seat. But according to the Cook Political Report (subscriber only), Burner is running better and, and with Obama’s help, Reichert is essenrtially the underdog.
This high-tech, upper-income district in the Seattle suburbs is prototypical Obama terrain. Although it is likely Reichert’s reputation as a law-and-order moderate will allow him to outperform McCain by a handful of points, it simply may not be enough. Even if she is slightly to the district’s left, Democrat Darcy Burner is running a more focused campaign than she ran in 2006 and still lacks a record to attack. Reichert, who will not be able to spend Burner and the DCCC dollar-for-dollar this time, will look more like an underdog this time around – which is not a terrible image to possess in this climate. This race appears headed to another photo finish.
Just because Hillary was able to run an underdog campaign does not mean Reichert can do the same. Clinton ran in a Democratic primary in a year when the Democratic nominee is favored to occupy the White House. Reichert is a Republican running with a damage party brand in the kind of district where said brand is about as valuable in politics as Yugo is in the automobile market. Burner is exactly the right fit for her district, she has learned from the mistakes of 2006 and she has the full financial and operational support of the DCCC. There is an incumbent in the race, so I do not like to make assumptions, but for its category, this is as sure a pickup as we can get.
Richert won by 16,000 votes in 2004. The margin was more than halved as he won by 7,000 votes in 2006. He’s running out. Out of money. Out of time. Out of the local fame of a big case solved as sherriff (Green River Killer).
So many of the close winners have given up the ghost and retired: Walsh in NY-25, Pryce in OH-15, Ferguson in NJ-7, Doolittle in CA-4, Cubin in Wyoming-At Large.We are going to win a lot of these almost seats this year. In 2006, Republicans had the money and resources to salvage a lot of seats (that was what all those polls were for). Now, the money is gone and so are the brains directing the operation.
Darcy is going to be one of those wins.
I bet Reichert goes out this year. Obama’s popularity in Washington will only increase Darcy Burners base. And Burner has been running a better campaign this year she currently has almost 50% more Cash on hand than Reichert.
Reichert relied on the NRCC for money to keep him competitive. Even if the NRCC weren’t broke, he’d be getting to the point where he’d be expected because of seniority and being entrenched to start putting money into the NRCC instead of taking money out… so at some point the NRCC would have to cut bait with him. The fact that they’re almost broke will only expedite the decision.