OK, get all the pirate-themed ARG jokes out of your system. Ready now?
American Research Group (likely voters, 6/13-17):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 54
John Sununu (R-inc): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
Jeanne Shaheen still faces a big campaign funds shortfall compared with the loaded Sununu, but the polls have consistently had this one in Casey/Santorum wipeout territory, and this is no exception. She owes her edge to indies: Shaheen is up 53-38 among independent and undeclared voters.
Of course, that’s peanuts compared with the beat-down that popular incumbent governor John Lynch is administering to state senator Joseph Kenney, as he seeks another term.
John Lynch (D-inc): 65
Joseph Kenney (R): 21
(MoE: ±4%)
Bear in mind, though, that the top line of the poll also has Obama beating McCain 51-39, so this may be an overly Democratic sample. (Or else the McCain campaign is completely imploding, and there’s enough polling evidence over the last week to actually suggest that.)
Even though New Hampshire has turned from a GOP state into a light blue one, Gregg remains popular and an institution of sorts in the state. I think only wildly popular Gov. Lynch would beat him.
I am sure Chuck is all over this, and will be calling Gov. Lynch starting on November 5 –assuming he has not started already — to get into the 2010 Senate race. It is never too late to look ahead!
But I tend to believe right now we’re closer to Rasmussen’s 7 point margin than 14.