Dan Jones & Associates (6/19, registered voters, 5/19 in parens):
Jason Chaffetz (R): 40 (37)
Chris Cannon (R-inc): 44 (39)
Undecided: 15 (19)
(MoE: ±5.5%)
Cannon leads among GOP voters by 49-37, while indies split for Chaffetz by a 46-31 margin. Chaffetz’s success tomorrow will depend entirely on getting independent voters to the polls. Still, it may not be wise to base expectations on a primary poll of registered (as opposed to likely) voters.
While it’s always fun to see Republicans lose, Chaffetz is somehow running on Cannon’s right, which hardly seems possible.
Primary: June 24
According to Charlie Cook, this is the single most Republican district in the country, so I imagine Cannon has to be pretty damn conservative to win here in the first place. I can’t imagine what new levels of wingnuttery we might see from Chaffetz.
However come November, there won’t be any difference. UT-03 is a staunchly Republican seat (Bush carried it in 04 with 77% of the vote)
we should root for the incumbent to lose for the simple fact it knocks him down the seniority chart.
I don’t see their being huge differences between these people that we care about.
I bet the crust of the argument is the cannon only goes to church 6 days a week. Anti-Religious bastard! He must go now.
Or perhaps he didn’t cut taxes fast enough.
Usually those are the two main issues in Republican primaries either taxes or religion.
Anyone know who the GOP is likely to put up in the event of a retirement? Reps Cannon and Bishop, and Gov. Huntsman are possibilities… Who would Matheson have the most difficult race against? Would taking out Cannon now save us problems later?