NC-10: A Blue Trend Extends To . . . Charlotte????

Well well, folks . . . methinks we might have a sleeper race on our hands here! According to the latest Public Policy Poll, Democratic challenger Daniel Johnson is only 11 points behind incumbent Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry. 

Daniel Johnson (D): 38 
Patrick McHenry (R, inc): 49
(MoE: ±2.9%)

While a double-digit spread does not seem like good news at first glance, keep in mind that this district, which encompasses some of the Charlotte suburbs and exurbs, has elected McHenry by over twenty points in the past two elections. 

McHenry, who was viewed fairly favorably as recently as last year, has seen his favorables dip below the dreaded 50% mark– yes, below 50%.  Conventional blog wisdom tells me that that spells vulnerability!

A few other interesting findings: in the gubernatorial race, this district definitely favors Pat McCrory over Beverly Perdue, and in the presidential, favors John McCain over Barack Obama.  Seeing as this is a district whose demographics skew older and whiter, I'm not too surprised.