Here’s the first tier, current Republican seats most likely to switch Democratic (ranked based on likelihood of switching):
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. Alaska
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
Democrats currently have a 51 seat majority in the current Senate (this includes the Lieberman factor). Assuming, that Lieberman remains in the Democratic caucus, which is likely, this leaves Democrats four seats short of sixty.
The second tier of competitive seats (ranked based on competiveness):
1. Mississippi
2. Oregon
3. North Carolina
The third tier of competitive seats (ranked based on competiveness):
1. Kansas
2. Kentucky
3. Texas
4. Georgia
Some may ask why Kansas would be the most competitive of this list and the answer is simple (a split between moderate and conservative Republicans). Run as a moderate anything in Kansas and you can win.
Kentucky is the next most competitive because it’s hard for McConnell to run from Bush, especially when his wife is one of a handful that can dreadfully say, “I survived eight years of George Bush, and helped shape a failed agenda.” Of course, McConnell could challenge his wife on this notion and say he helped push it through, yet why would he want to take credit where credit is deserved.
Texas and Georgia become competitive mostly due to demographics, yet both also feature lackluster incumbents.
Democrats should strategize on winning two seats in the second tier and one in the third tier (Kansas is an inexpenvie media market compared to the other three states).
Finally, there is the fourth tier, convincing a Republican incumbent to become a Democrat. Ranked below is the likelihood of a Republican switching to the Democrats should it be necessary to guarantee a 60 seat majority (ranked based on likelihood of switching parties):
1. Specter (PA) – Conservative hate him and he hates them. Re-election? What re-election?
2. Collins (ME) – This is where Lieberman can come into play. Only he seems to hold the key into bringing her over.
3. McCain (AZ) – If he loses the general election due to conservatives, then leaving the party in its entirety would be a good bye gift of sorts.
4. Smith (OR) – If he is re-elected due to moderates and independents, rather than conservatives, then he may decide that the Democrats are the party of choice. He would also have two new colleagues (aka: second cousins) to lead his way into the party.
5. Coleman (MN) – This state is treading more and more Democratic. Coleman may decide it’s time to come back home where he started.
6. Snowe (ME) – Highly unlikely that she would switch, yet if Shays and Sununu are defeated, that may serve as an early notice of further Republican erosion in New England (even in the moderate of form).
7. Graham (SC) – Conservative hate him and presented him with what was considered a “formible” primary opponent (Graham easily stomped him, winning every count statewide except Greenville). Consider Graham only if he’s presented with a chairmanship (aka: Armed Services).
8. Voinovich (OH) – If three or more Republican seats in Ohio flip, then expect this to be a second notice that Ohio is no longer red.
9. Murkowski (AK) – Her father was a disaster and now if the last half of the trio (Young and Stevens) are defeated then she will no longer have to answer to a higher authority. Free at last.
10. Martinez (FL) – If he see’s the Republican Party being overtaken by radicals targeting Hispanics (aka: illegal immigrants), then it could convince him that the Republican Party is a party of hate (a switch would still guarantee him the Republican Cuban voters, even as a Democrat).
Now, the list does leave out four races that were seen as promising early on (yet there is no point for the DSCC to overplay their field):
1. Oklahoma – The likelihood is that Inhofe will prevail.
2. Nebraska – Johanns will be a moderate like Hagel, yet just not as moderate.
3. Minnesota – Both Franken and Ciresi are in short terrible candidates with extreme flaws.
4. Maine – Allen is stuggling to battle against someone who’s voting almost identical to him. Unlike Rhode Island, where there was an outsider (Whitehouse) versus an insider (Chafee), Maine is a battle between two insiders.
I think you’re mistaken about the competitiveness of Maine and Minnesota — especially thinking that states like Georgia and Texas are more likely to flip.
— The last Rasmussen poll out of Maine had a 7 point (49-42) lead for Collins over Allen. Slowly but surely, Allen has been narrowing this race, and there is every reason to expect that this will be a tight race come fall. There are hugely significant differences in the voting records of Allen and Collins (in 2006, Collins supported President Bush’s positions 79% of the time, Allen only 23%. On issues such as Iraq, Bush tax cuts, confirming Alito, and a bunch of other votes, Collins has been a reliable vote for the Senate Republicans and George Bush. Unlike Chaffee, who truly was unpredictable and independent, Allen will be able to tie Collins to Bush and use that in a state where Bush is incredibly unpopular.
— Franken has a tougher road in Minnesota, but it is far from being a done deal. Coleman has been polling consistently at 50% or under, which is trouble territory for any incumbent. Obama is running very strong in Minnesota, and that should up DFL turnout considerably. Franken has been hurt in the last few weeks, but I’m not sure those wounds are permanent — he seems to have succeeded in pulling the DFL together after the convention, and is growing as a candidate each week. The key will be if Coleman’s 77% support of Bush will be enough to bring him down in a bad year to be a Republican. This is definitely not a race to write off at this time.
There are a lot of road maps that could get us to 60 — if this turns out to be a “wave” election then rather than picking up a seat here, a seat there — a large number of seats could all flip in November.
In my book there are 13 likely competitive Republican seats (Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi (Wicker), NH, NM, NC, Oregon, Texas, Virginia). Depending on circumstances, there is a remote chance that are four other seats could become competitive (Georgia – if Martin wins the primary and Obama seriously competes in the state, Idaho – if a conservative 3rd party candidate runs strong, Nebraska – if Kleeb can somehow dent Johans image, Oklahoma — while it is so conservative that it is unlikely Inhofe is such a jerk and is polling under 50% and Rice is running a good campaign)
There is very little reason to believe that any Republicans will switch parties post-election — none of these folks are a James Jeffords or a Lincoln Chaffee who didn’t feel comfortable as Republicans. I’d actually rather be in a position where the Democrats don’t have to rely on Joe Lieberman to hold a majority — because the way he has been acting this year shows we can’t trust the guy.
That’s what I think you have, for several reasons:
1.) You actually think Lieberman will on his own bring Susan Collins over to the Democratic side when he himself is on the verge of switching to the Republicans?
2.) You actually think McCain is going to go blue? I have NEVER seen any precedent where the presidential nominee of a defeated party switches over to the other side after losing the election. NEVER.
3.) Smith and Coleman switching to being Democrats? Possible, but highly unlikely after getting reelected (that is if that happens). They may wait a year or two.
4.) Lindsey Graham may be on the Democrats side on immigration, but as for everything else, he is staunchly Republican on. No way in hell, even he gets to chair Armed Services.
The last time I recall Senators switching parties outright was after the GOP tidal wave in 1994. Richard Shelby (Alabama) and Ben Nighthorse Campbell (Colorado) switched to Republicans from Democrats almost overnight.
Although, I think Voinovich and Spector are the most likely suspects to do a party switch should the Dems increase their Senate majority this fall.