Public Policy Polling (6/26-29, likely voters, 5/28-29 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 37 (39)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 51 (47)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
The post-primary bounce is clearly over for Hagan, as Dole has corrected her numbers with media buys re-introducing herself throughout the state. One particular area where Hagan needs to shore up her support is among African American voters, where she only holds a 52-28 lead over Dole.
Bonus finding: In the Presidential race, McCain leads Obama by 45-41, with Bob Barr picking up 5%.
Thats pretty bad when a Democratic pollster shows Dole with such a wide lead.
1. Kay has been busy doing her job in the NC Senate and only campaigning on weekends. With the Senate session done, I expect you’ll see her move back up now that she can campaign full time.
2. Q2 fund raising will be important – hopefully she’ll have enough to start doing her own ad buys.
3. This race will be decided in September and October when people really start paying attention. Despite all the talk about Dole’s adds, I’ve yet to see one. Not a lot of folks watching TV right now.
Finally a comment on the Presidential poll – for McCain to be consistently polling in the mid 40s in a state that Republicans usually win by strong double digits should definitely be a warning sign. If Obama stays this close in NC you can pretty much chalk up a win in VA.