1. Young (AK) – Young is being hit by scandal and his campaign war chest is going mostly to attorney fees. While it is a three-way primary race, Lt. Gov. Parnell, an endorsement of popular Gov. Palin, spells absolute trouble for Young. Should Parnell win and defeat Young, then expect this seat to become less likely for a Democratic pickup. Outlook: Young loses.
2. Broun (GA) – This is a battle between who is more conservative, similar to the battle Cannon lost in Utah. Broun defeated the establishment candidate in a special election. Many attribute this victory to cross-over Democratic voters from more liberal areas, such as Athens. Fleming is more of a “nut” than Broun and the cross-over appeal voters will not be able to rescue Broun this round. Outlook: Broun loses.
3. Jefferson (LA) – He has been scandal plagued for eternity. Even with scandal, Jefferson has managed to prevail in the past. A crowded primary would be considered beneficial to him. However, at a time when incumbents on both sides are being thrown out or retiring “voluntarily” there is no doubt that Jefferson is in trouble. Outlook: Jefferson loses.
4. Kilpatrick (MI) – Detroit is souring over the Kilpatricks, more the son than the mother. Had she simply run as Carolyn Cheeks she would be safer. A three-way primary benefits Kilpatrick, yet Waters is viewed as the more serious candidate and Scott as a mere placement candidate meant to split votes. Coincidentally, Kilpatrick defeated a fellow incumbent in a 1996 primary to win this seat. That fellow Democrat now serves on the Detroit City Council, the same group that has been battling her son. Deja-vu has returned. Kilpatrick is in deep trouble. Outlook: Too Close to Call.
5. Cohen (TN) – He represents a majority African-American district, yet he is Jewish and white. He is being challenged by Tinker, an African-American who is supported by some religious leaders who believe that only a fellow African-American can represent other African-Americans (a joke at best). A crowded primary with fellow African-Americans, including Tinker, assisted Cohen in winning this seat last election. Most polls show Cohen with a decent favorability rating and he endorsed Obama early on. Outlook: Leans Cohen.
6. Lamborn (CO) – This is a three-way primary that was expected to be a two-way primary between “wacko” Lamborn and whoever polled best between Crank and Rayburn. Polls indicated Crank performed best against Lamborn, yet Rayburn decided that any deal made between him and Crank was not valid. As a result, a three-way primary continues to exist. This is not only a conservative district, yet also a military district and Lamborn can tout his seat on the Armed Services. A seat there does indeed matter here. Unlike Musgrave, Lamborn has also maintained a lower profile. Outlook: Likely Lamborn
7. Barrow (GA) – This is another district that is a little less than 50% African-American. Barrow is a conservative Southern Democrat. His opponent is State Senator Thomas. She is more of a liberal Southern Democrat, yet also African-American. A low turount benefits Barrow. He also has proven a winning streak against challenging Republicans. Outlook: Likely Barrow.
8. Cazayoux (LA) – A third district with a sizeable African-American population. Should state representative Michael Jackson challenge Cazayoux in a primary, then it may become nasty. Should this occur then it may seriously hurt Cazayoux with the African-American base of this district (Jackson is African-American). Republicans may also find themselves in a nasty primary as well. Should Jackson challenge Cazayoux, which is unlikely, then expect Cazayoux to have an edge. Outlook: Likely Cazayoux.
9. Blackburn (TN) – Big Oil’s darling is having her conservative credentials questioned. While Leatherwood has little chance of actually defeating Blackburn, he has managed to catch her off guard for the time being. Outlook: Safe Blackburn.
10. There really is no “stand out” for number ten, yet there are three races worth watching:
Keller (FL) – If Keller performs low against an ultra-conservative and underfunded opponent, then this Orlando based seat, which has been treading more Democratic since Keller entered office with Bush, could be a serious Democratic pickup come November.
David Davis (TN) – Davis is a freshman facing two opponents from 2006. Roe is the more challenging of the two, he is a mayor, physician, and veteran (executive, health care, and military experience). Not a bad mix for a conservative district.
Baird (WA) – Baird initially oppossed the war in Iraq and now has come to support it. This transformation may not play well in his liberal district. His opponent is a peace candidate, who not well funded, may be able to run a grass roots campaign and succeed.
**Please note. I am a moderate Democrat and not a liberal.**
He’s got a primary challenger and has previously been held under 50% in a three-way race. The primary is the race that matters and his district could easily maintain a more liberal representative, so there’s an outside chance he could be in trouble.
Also, last I checked Jackson was threatening to run as an independent.
Towns is definately in trouble, yet until the filing deadline passes it is difficult to gauge how serious a challenge Towns will face. If Hakeem Jeffries challenges Towns, then this race can turn interesting.
Could you post primary dates for these races? I want to know if it’s too late to really do any good for, say, Cohen. Georgia’s primaries are 7/15.
Detroit politics are nothing if they are not, well, interesting. It’s too bad that Kwame Kilpatrick couldn’t keep it in his pants (or at least not send out a bazillion text messages about it), as I do think that he did truly care about the city. I have an acquaintence who does electircal contract work in the Detroit area, mostly in the city itself, and he tells me stories that would make Mayor Daley Sr. and Jimmy Hoffa Sr. blush. And the Kilpatrick’s are far from the worst Detroit has to offer. Congresswoman Kilpatrick replaced Barbara Rose-Collins in the 1990s, after Collins was investigated for a whole host of hanky-panky $$ stuff, and also after she fired a gay staff member because she was afraid he had AIDS. Detriot politics — unethical, disgusting, but never boring for three consecutive seconds!