I may be getting way ahead of myself here. This kind of thing may be more appropriate when we actually have vice-presidential nominees. But if there’s one thing we like to do in the blogosphere, it’s speculate. So, with that, here are the questions for you guys to argue over this weekend: who’s going to be the next vice-president, and (more importantly, from SSP’s perspective) who gets to take over the vacancy left behind by the new VP?
This was prompted in large part by Chris Dodd‘s admission that he’s being vetted for VP, followed by a lot of people’s subsequent realization that “Hey, wait a minute… Connecticut has a Republican governor, who would appoint his replacement…” Trouble is, who does Jodi Rell appoint? Does she bow to the state’s Democratic lean and appoint a Democrat? Does she appoint Chris Shays (and, if he even wins in 2008, thus open up his seat for a likely Dem win in a special election)? Does she appoint one of the other loser ex-Reps (like Nancy Johnson… assuming she remembered to maintain a Connecticut domicile)? Does she appoint herself, knowing that she’s the only popular Republican in the state and thus the best shot for holding onto the seat beyond 2010?
That’s only one big example of the can of worms that each potential VP scenario creates. Let’s look at some more scenarios (possible VPs are listed in terms of likelihood, according to today’s InTrade “bid” numbers, which are the middle column); in each case, I’ve listed who the replacement (or replacement picker) will be. Let’s start with the Democrats:
| Hillary Clinton | 15.4 | Appointment by David Paterson (D) |
| Kathleen Sebelius | 14.0 | Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (D) |
| Evan Bayh | 8.0 | Appointment by ??? (lean R) |
| Jack Reed | 7.9 | Appointment by Don Carcieri (R) |
| Tim Kaine | 7.8 | Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) |
| Chuck Hagel | 7.2 | No vacancy created |
| Joe Biden | 7.0 | Appointment by ??? (safe D) |
| Claire McCaskill | 6.5 | Appointment by ??? (lean D) |
| Bill Richardson | 6.5 | Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D) |
| Ed Rendell | 5.0 | Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll (D) |
The biggest question mark here is probably Bayh, as his replacement would be appointed by either Mitch Daniels or Jill Long Thompson, depending on how IN-Gov shakes out. One more reason not to make him the VP, as far as I’m concerned, somewhat further down the list from a) he’s too conservative and b) he’s soul-paralyzingly boring.
We’ve already tackled the replacing-Clinton question in a diary last year, although things may have changed a bit since then. (The most common prediction: that Eliot Spitzer would appoint David Paterson to be the next Senator from NY. Funny how things work out sometimes.)
And now the GOP:
| Willard “Mitt” Romney | 25.3 | No vacancy created |
| Tim Pawlenty | 14.0 | Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau (R) |
| Sarah Palin | 12.0 | Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) |
| Mike Huckabee | 11.1 | No vacancy created |
| Charlie Crist | 8.1 | Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp (R) |
| Carly Fiorina | 7.0 | No vacancy created |
| Rob Portman | 7.0 | No vacancy created |
| Eric Cantor | 6.0 | Special election |
| Mark Sanford | 6.0 | Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) |
| John Thune | 6.0 | Appointment by Mike Rounds (R) |
The real weirdness here is in Alaska. Suppose Sarah Palin becomes the new VP… but then also suppose that Sean Parnell becomes the new Representative in AK-AL. I can’t confirm that the Senate President is third in line (the state constitution doesn’t go into that), but if that’s the case, then Lyda Green (R) is the current Senate President… although I don’t know if she’ll be the President next session, as her status as President depends on crossover votes from the Democrats in the Senate. [Update from the comments: Apparently Attorney General Talis Colberg is third in line.]
Well, I’ll turn it over to the SSP readers: which of these scenarios seems likely, and in the Senate scenarios, whom do you see getting picked to fill the vacancy?
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Gregoire (D)- 49
Rossi (R)- 43
Numbers are almost identical to last month’s poll. Numbers sound good to me.
Green announced she isn’t running for re-election this year.
The Governor made the appointment of Jean Carnahan in 2000 after the Mel Carnahan/Ashcroft election.
Has it changed?
Biden. And even though Gov. Minner (D) is term-limited, either Lt. Gov. Carney or Markell (Treasurer)–both Dems–will probably win in November. But the Dems in Delaware don’t have that great of a bench. I’d guess Biden’s son at this point.
For me (and I think most Dems), Hagel’s completely unacceptable. Bayh isn’t much better, in my opinion. Rendell and Richardson are decent enough picks. Rendell is term-limited in 2010 anyway, and Baker-Knoll is up there in years, so I can’t imagine she’d run for a full term.
I agree with the trading odds that Mittens is the slight Republican favorite at this point. I’d love for McCain to pick Fiorina–it would enrage the Moonie-Evangelicals and she was a total disaster in the corporate world. Really, the only worst choice from the business arena would be the corpse of Ken Lay.
Sorry, meant to say that the new Delaware gov is likely to appoint Biden’s son to the Senate seat…
Both state houses have veto-proof majority so they can pass legislation forcing her to pick a Democrat. Thank God, they really could’ve screwed over a possible filibuster proof majority.
Biden or Dodd would be excellent. Richardson, Rendell would make me happy. On the fence on Hillary… She simply cannot run for president in 2016, she would never win so giving her the VP spot is only inviting her to run then.
not that conservative, and I found him very interesting to listen to. He was so knowledgeable on national security, and economics, which he spoke on numerous times. He gives Obama experience to balance the ticket, and he’s someone, who, with ten years in the U.S. senate, can talk about national security and foreign policy with a great deal of candor, knowledge, and experience. In addition, he insures Indiana goes Democratic, as, along with Lugar, the he is the most popular politician in the state, and comes from a politically famous family. The state’s already close, with a five point generic lean to McCain, it would swing 11 electoral votes, and help Obama in Kentucky, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
But, again, back to my original statement, Bayh’s not that conservative. He’s pro-choice, pro-stem cell research. He normally stakes a centrist position on national security issues, which goes over well with the general electorate. He’s also pretty good on economic issues. The VP really isn’t important in many areas, the main job is to swing votes, and break ties in the U.S. Senate, and Bayh would do both of those things for Democrats. The other possible job is as a policy advisor, and Bayh, with thirty plus years of experience as a state representative, secretary of state, Governor, and U.S. Senator, brings plenty of experience and ability to the table in that regard. I’ve always been a big proponent of a Bayh VP, behind Edwards and Webb, but now that Edwards and Webb have dropped out of consideration, I would definitely go with Bayh.
One would be elevating the heir apparent Parkinson to KS Governor and giving him an incumbency advantage in 2010 when the seat would have been open.
i even think i asked it last week –
here are the answers i’ve gleaned:
First off, I don’t think it can be Hagel who is a by-the-book republican in every way except the war (the mirror image of Lieberman) or Rendell, who is a loose cannon and has zero foreign policy experience and helps in a state that Obama doesn’t need help in.
Hillary Clinton 15.4 Appointment by David Paterson (D) ANDREW CUOMO OR CONGRESSMAN BISHOP
Kathleen Sebelius 14.0 Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson (D)
Evan Bayh 8.0 Appointment by ??? (lean R) IF DEM THEN TIM ROEMER, IF GOP THEN PENCE OR BUYER
Jack Reed 7.9 Appointment by Don Carcieri (R)
Tim Kaine 7.8 Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)
Joe Biden 7.0 Appointment by ??? (safe D) I don’t like giving it to Biden’s son – who has very little experience. I would think that the loser of the Dem Governor’s Primary would be a good uniter for the DE dems.
Claire McCaskill 6.5 Appointment by ??? (lean D) ROBIN CARNAHAN
Bill Richardson 6.5 Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D)
Bill Richardson’s rumors and lack of campaign discipline make him a risky choice. Claire McCaskill’s thin resume is also a problem. Tim Kaine’s lack of foreign policy experience and handing the VA gov to Bolling are not pleasant prospects.
The rest seem like pretty good choices in different ways.
As one who has recently gotten a ticket on the Bayh bandwagon, I will quibble with your quibbles with him.
1) He’s on the conservative side of Democratic politics (like LBJ, Clinton and Gore), but by no means conservative. And Obama has successfully said that he’s post-partisan – able to see both sides and not be a knee-jerk liberal. A choice like Bayh will communicate that message much better than awkward positions on FISA.
2) Boring? He better be. This is the VP we’re talking about. He is to be seen and not heard. Every VP since Agnew – with the notable exception of Quayle, has been boring and that’s the way we Americans like them: Ford, Mondale, Bush 1, Gore (I believe that if someone had suggested Gore in ’92, he would have been called “soul-paralyzingly boring” as well), and Cheney.
He’s a great looking moderate with a great resume – the perfect VP candidate in a swing state.
As someone who has been represented by (and voted for) Evan Bayh for all of my 16 years of living in Indiana, I have mixed feelings about him. He is certainly on the conservative side of the party, but not as conservative as many think he is, and has cast at least some important liberal votes over the past few years (against Condi Rice, against Justices Roberts and Alito — despite the fact Roberts is originally from Indiana). I think he would be very comfortable moving to the left as VP, especially as he would not have to face an Indiana election again.
Is he boring? In a word, yes. He comes off best giving a serious policy speech, but not so well in a more fired up campaign setting. I’m not sure that’s a huge deal, though, as this is going to be a “Rock Star” campaign, and I think that alone will make anything or anyone associated with it exciting.
One big question I have about Senator Bayh is how good of a campaigner is he? Other than his first election as governor, way back in 1988, he hasn’t really had to fight for an election. Especially in both of his runs for the Senate, he was so popular and raised so much money, the Republicans ran token candidates against him, so he’s a bit untested in terms of how much of a political fighter he is.
All in all, I’d be fine with his selection from a national perspective, although I’m not sure he’d be my first (or fifth or sixth) choice. From a statewide one, I’d be thrilled to have the added attention this would give our governor’s race.
I’ve got to put in my two-cents in the VP.
A couple of days ago my office made a betting pool for the winner. I choose Wesley Clark for Dems and Huckabee for GOP.
After choosing Clark, I immediately regretted the choice and wish I could have picked Clinton. Now, I’m not sure how to look at the rumors going around but Hillary is definitely looking like a possibility. I not sure how I feel about this but I have run into at least 10 people who have said that they will only vote for Obama if Hillary is the Veep. Usually they are older, blue-collar Hispanics. I’m not sure if I believe them though. They could show up and vote for Obama over McCain.
I don’t really trust the In Trade. Aren’t 40% of the “shares” in the “Other Candidate” category? From what I can tell that really throws off the remaining value for the other Veeps. I’m also pretty sure that Clinton was leading the primary on InTrade big time. In other words: free market equals B.S.
(Sorry for rambling, its just been one of those days.)
I think it’s imperative that Obama avoids picking a Senator or Governor whose immediate successor is a Republican or could well be appointed by one. We need every Senate seat and Governor’s mansion we have. I think this would automatically rule out Dodd, Bayh, Kaine, Jack Reed and McCaskill.
Also, I really don’t think he needs to pick Chuck Hagel or any other Republican. As much as I respect Hagel for bucking his party on Iraq, he’s still one of the most conservative members of his party on economic and social issues. Hagel would be fine for SecDef or SecState, but I really don’t want a Republican to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.
I am a hard working pary Democrat in Indiana and you are 100% correct about Senator Bayh. He would probably by replaced by the republican governor unless we pull an upset and elect a Democrat governor in November. Very Unlikely. He is so conservative that he is almost republican and votes with Bush much of the time. He also is very very boring. I hope Obama looks elsewhere.
The list of Dem candidates on the potential VP list could very well be appointed as cabinet members in an Obama presidency too.
of Fort Wayne, which has about 200,000 citizens in 1998, and Bayh still won with 64% of the vote. Also, in 1986, he won a very close race for Secretary of state.
Another good reason to pick Bayh would be he could then, as part of the ticket, I believe, transfer the nearly 10 million dollars in his senate campaign account to the federal account. What other candidate instantly brings ten million dollars to the table.
I would be pleased to see are Tim Kaine and Joe Biden. Biden is a foreign policy expert who could help Obama in the administration, plus having a long time Washington hand could be valuable in helping pass legislation. At the same time, unlike some other picks, Biden does not look like he was just picked to improve Obama’s foreign policy credentials, a story we need to avoid. In truth, I think picking someone hoping it will improve voters’ opinion on Obama’s foreign policy is a mistake. Voters will judge Obama, not his VP. Biden can help in the administration and is a good speaker on the campaign trail. If Biden is VP, I think the loser of the Democratic gubernatorial primary would be the best selection.
Since A VP will not improve public perception about Obama’s ability to handle foreign affairs, I do not consider Kaine’s lack of foreign policy experiance a negative. He would swing Virginia to us, compliments Obama’s outsider image, and may help us in our efforts to attract faith voters.
I know that Reed and Biden are up this cycle and others may be too. Do you think they’d pull a Lieberman and run for Senate anyway, or would they be able to drop out, be replaced by another candidate and concentrate on the VP race? That would be a good way of making sure the seat is secure.
we have to. Obama is young and needs more of an elder statesman. Perhaps he picks Nunn or Hamilton for his first term and then a potential future president for his second. There comes a governor to mind who is term-limited in 2012 (begins with Sch and ends with weitzer)…
then we’d lose the house seat. Joe Donneley, or Baron Hill. We could appoint Hill. Hill could win statewide, and he’s not too old to run a few terms. Indiana is really trending Dem, I saw that McCain won 55+ by like thirty points, and Obama won the under 35 vote by something like thirty-four points. The way I see it, Indiana will inevitably start leaning Democratic, if Obama wins the under 35 by 38 or 39 points, in the future, these voters should swing the state, along with the deaths of the current older and solidly republican voters die. The same is true across the midwest, though not so much in the south.
he isn’t in the Top 10 at InTrade (despite his statement a few days ago that he’d be willing to do it). Personally, I’d pick him over any of the ones in their top 10, although I wouldn’t call him the ‘likeliest’ pick. Anyway, anyone feeling confident that he will be picked might take this opportunity to go make some money off it at InTrade.
said he would accept a nomination as Vice President, and took his own name out of the running.
There’s so many reasons not to pick Edwards and let some one else have a go. I don’t see how this strengthens the ticket significantly either. He couldn’t put NC in play in 2004, he’s cultivated a much more aggressive persona from the Southern moderate of the Kerry campaign, and it’s not as if he adds any of the gravitas a pick like Biden, Dodd or Jack Reed could bring to the ticket.
I think I saw those SUSA polls and Edwards was the only one of the VP candidates tested with any name recognition. I think one could explain the somewhat better showing Obama had in states with Edwards’ name on the ticket had more to do with name ID than anything else.
I would prefer Obama to pick someone unlikely to run for President (If the person who can best help Obama win is someone likely to run for President in the future, I would not have a problem with it.) Fostering an heir apparent on us takes away our ability to decide who should represent our party. I think a competative Presidential primary in 2016 would do little harm, but would allow us to select the best candidate for that year.