Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (5/28 in parentheses):
Mary Landrieu (D-inc.): 49 (47)
John Kennedy (R): 44 (44)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Mary Landrieu is holding steady against John N. Kennedy, although not outside the margin of error. (Rasmussen has started giving ‘alternate’ results if leaners are pushed, which gives her a slightly better-looking 51/45.) This despite the huge momentum that Kennedy got from his campaign kick-off event.
Bear in mind that this is the same sample that gave John McCain such a huge lead over Barack Obama, 54-34. This may be an overly Republican sample, or it may simply indicate a lot of ticket-splitting: only 67% of McCain’s voters say they’ll vote for Kennedy as well. (This reflects Landrieu’s conservative profile, as well as the symbolic power of the Landrieu dynasty and the porousness of political party boundaries in Louisiana).
Last year, following the governor’s race in Louisiana, I did an experiment where I applied the parish-by-parish percentages in the 2002 senate race to the parish-by-parish turnout numbers (which reflect post-Katrina demographics) in the 2007 gubernatorial election. Bottom line: Landrieu won, although it was close (about 50.5 to 49.5). The Louisiana demographics have changed, certainly, but not to the extent that it’s fatal for Landrieu, since a) a lot of white people left Louisiana, too (there was catastrophic storm damage in white areas like St. Bernard Parish too, which nearly emptied out), and b) a lot of African-Americans from New Orleans moved to Baton Rouge, Shreveport, or Lafayette.
Finally, another consideration is that people are returning to New Orleans at a fast clip. The Census Bureau just announced that New Orleans was the fastest-growing (by percentage) large city in the country in the period from July 2006-July 2007, gaining almost 30,000 people, or about 14%. It’s still less than 60% of its size pre-Katrina, but the people are returning (although there’s no way to measure whether the returnees are coming back from Houston and Atlanta, or from Baton Rouge and Shreveport, which would be less of an advantage).
H/t Safi.
Given Landrieu’s money advantage, the lack of support the GOP will give Kennedy, and the overall Democratic lean to the year, 5 points should be enough, even though she is below the 50% mark.