A new Rasmussen poll shows a static Senate race since last month (June 15 in parens):
Tom Allen (D): 42 (42)
Susan Collins (R, inc): 49 (49)
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers are identical to last month's, and, when leaners are included, Collins leads by ten points, 53 to 43. That concerns me, and I certainly hope Tom Allen is running as many ads as possible tying Collins to the unpopular and mistaken war that she supported from the start. I know that the conventional wisdom is that voters in Maine only start paying attention to politics after Memorial Day. Last month, Allen's movement in the poll bore that out . . . but what does this month's stagnation mean?
Allen has hit the current ceiling but that doesn’t mean it’s going to hold. Just wait for the world to get a little worse and watch Collins attempt to explain how her votes that led to disaster after disaster.
1. Virgina
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Mississippi-B
7. Oregon
8. Maine
9. Minnesota
10. North Carolina
11. Kentucky
12. Kansas
13. Texas
14. Idaho
Louisiana is the only competitive one on our side with a chance of flipping but I think the chances of that are slim at best.
But this is the same ME Ras poll that shows Obama going from +22 to +8 in ME correct. IN that context Allen holding steady actually does not bode ill. While Obama’s support may be softening in ME I doubt it fell 14 points in a month so there seems to be some random noise that was either inflating the D last month or underestimating the D this month but either way Allen is on the right trend line.
The reality is in this political world a ton depends on TV advertising. Allen is sitting on top of 3 million dollars and Collins is sitting on 5 million dollars. In addition Maine is one of the cheapest media markets in the country and will get heavy investment by the DSCC.
Come back to me around October when the race has reached the airway. If Allen still is not moving then I will be concerned.
If I’m not mistaken, no one has run a single ad yet in Maine, so I’m also not so worried about this one. Allen is actually just where he should be considering he is less well known in the northern district.
She’s gone from 70% maximal support last fall to 57% this spring, and now 53%.
Btw, I’m getting increasingly by this cultural habit taken from the Obama campaign of misleadingly talking about polling by percentage difference. That’s psychological support information, not electoral, until the Undecideds drop under, say, 15%.