Via Hotline On Call:
Former Rep. Jim Ryun, R-Kan., confirmed this afternoon he would run again for Congress next year, and picked up early encouragement for his comeback attempt – but he still faces the possibility of a strong primary challenge. Ryun — who lost a re-election bid last November to now-Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda — said in an interview that he had been mulling another run for the House, but wanted to wait until the state GOP’s annual Kansas Days gathering this past weekend to gauge support and reveal his intentions. “I needed time to reflect on the last election and see what kind of support I had,” Ryun said.After holding the seat since 1996 Ryun – a onetime Olympic runner — lost the state’s 2nd District to Boyda by a 51-47 percent margin last year. Ryun said he would soon be back on the campaign trail “full time,” and described his defeat as an election anomaly in a bad political year for Republicans. “There was a surge that came through,” he said. “I was on the wrong corner ad the wrong time.” Ryun, a social and fiscal conservative, demurred on the question of possible primary opposition; state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins is mulling the race. Ryun instead trained his rhetorical fire on Boyda, whom he said does not represent the “Kansas values.” Declared Ryun: “She’s not a conservative. She’s a liberal.”
If Ryun can make it through the primary against a more moderate opponent like Jenkins, the general election will be a good test of Kansas’ rehabilitation from its time spent on the precipice of mini-Taliban extremism.
The Republicans believe they will have the Democrats’ 1996, when many defeated Democrats reclaimed their seats. This will be the third match between Boyda and Ryun, and I imagine Boyda is already preparing for a spirited challenge. But given her grassroots and multimedia campaign in 2006, will Ryun be creative enough to oust her? Can we rely on Kathleen Sebelius to campaign for Boyda? Will Boyda survive without Sebelius’s coattails?
greatly from Incumbents beat in 2006 running rematches. It allows Democrats to set the mood to 2006 again, which was a very good year for Democrats. These new Republicans will have hihg name rec., but high unfavorables as well. Nancy Boyda can only hope that Ryun runs, becuase it he doesn’t, there’s no GOPer to stop Lynn Jenkins, and Boyda simply can’t beat her. But, Ryun would win that primary based on the wingnutty faction of the Kansas GOP.
is not over. Jim Ryun will proudly carry the wingnut banner into battle against the evil forces of moderate Republicanism. 2006 opened a significant schism in KS-2 as the moderate Republicans struck back sending Phil Morrison to victory as arch-wingnut Phil Kline, albeit as a Democrat backer of Kathleen Sebelius. Many of the Sebelius converts come from KS-2 as it is has the largest concentration of degreed and professionally licensed persons in the state.
Biyda runs an extremely strong ground game and as an incumbent will be able to run sufficient finds for her 2008 re-election battle.
I must echo ArkDem’s view that I would rather Nancy Boyda face Jim Ryun than an energetic moderate GOPer. Jim Ryun has proven he is a poor campaigner and lethargic fundraiser and he really always was. The wingnuts have been coasting in Kansas and the world is beginning to pass them by once again.
If you look at voter data you will see that women voters shifted to the Democrats recently, and that single women are voting in greater numbers. Both trends advantage Democrats and Nancy Boyda is benefitting greatly from this mini-realignment within the electorate.
I am not sure that take is correct. I am a moderate back here in KS and while I am no big fan of Ryun’s, Boyda has her work cut out for her with Ryun running again. If you look at the hard numbers, Boyda only lost 8,000 votes between 04 and 06. Ryun lost over 61,000. That is not a realignment. That is a “we’re the base and we’re staying home” scenario. And it’s not like those votes crossed over. They just plain did not show up.