On August 5th, congressional primaries will be decided in Kansas, Missouri and Michigan. The FEC requires candidates in these states to file fundraising reports covering the extended period of 4/1 through 7/16 by midnight tonight. We’ve rounded up all the numbers of interest in a handy chart below (which we’ve inserted into our 2Q round-up chart):
| District | Candidate | Party | 2Q Raised | CoH | CTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS-02 | Nancy Boyda | D-inc. | $235 | $892 | $1,227 |
| KS-02 | Lynn Jenkins | R | $130 | $489 | $641 |
| KS-02 | Jim Ryun | R | $440 | $223 | $1,649 |
| KS-03 | Dennis Moore | D-inc. | $336 | $1,140 | $1,185 |
| KS-03 | Nick Jordan | R | $472 | $616 | $861 |
| MI-07 | Tim Walberg | R-inc. | $363 | $855 | $1,186 |
| MI-07 | Mark Schauer | D | $420 | $929 | $1,303 |
| MI-09 | Joe Knollenberg | R-inc. | $713 | $1,891 | $2,547 |
| MI-09 | Gary Peters | D | $570 | $1,082 | $1,301 |
| MO-06 | Sam Graves | R-inc. | $316 | $936 | $1,663 |
| MO-06 | Kay Barnes | D | $463 | $962 | $1,852 |
| MO-09 | Judy Baker | D | $185 | $140 | $391 |
| MO-09 | Steve Gaw | D | $107 | $40 | $218 |
| MO-09 | Ken Jacob | D | $24 | $73 | $54 |
| MO-09 | Lyndon Bode | D | $43 | $5 | $120 |
| MO-09 | Bob Onder | R | $100 | $153 | $220 |
| MO-09 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | R | $71 | $141 | $142 |
All numbers, of course, are in thousands.
You might notice that our numbers for Kay Barnes don’t jive with the figure reported for her by the Politico’s Josh Kraushaar. Our chart pegs Barnes’ pre-primary fundraising at $463K, while Kraushaar reports that Barnes raised $601K. I’m not sure where Josh is getting his numbers from, but if you look at the actual filing, you’ll note that Barnes’ net contributions line matches our figure, and her total receipts for the quarter were still well under the Politico’s number.
What’s important is that Kay Barnes is out-hustling Graves on the money front. Judy Baker is doing pretty well also. I never would’ve thought back in early 2007 that any seat in Missouri would be competitive. Combined with the DCCC cash advantage, I think we’re going to do far better than the 10-15 seat gain most of the big-name prognosticators see.
could come from self funding and other. Both of those numbers are not included on FEC reports. For Graves, Other makes up around 200K-300K of his fundraising. Which means it is not out of the realm of possibility for Barnes to have actually raised 601K if she got a boost from the other category.
And even though they both took out 250K loans she has pretty much the same cash on hand as either of them!
If she wins the primary, this seat needs to be bumped up from Likely Republican to at least Leans Republican.
I have an ActBlue page for her and Kay Barnes and state and local candidates here.
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
And Judy Baker has one of the nicest campaign websites out there, imho.
http://judybakerforcongress.com/
MO-09 has a real chance to turn from deep right-wing red to deep progressive blue in 08!
(By the way, good to see you at NN)
1. Nancy Boyda is REALLY starting to concern me. Ryun crushed her this quarter on the fundraising front. The one thing that gives me some hope is that his burn rate seems awfully high, leaving her with exactly a 4-to-1 cash-on-hand edge.
2. Nick Jordan’s numbers in KS-03 (he is Dennis Moore’s GOP opponent) look a little more impressive than they really are, because he transferred over $300K from another authorized account, presumably his state Senate account.
3. Schauer and Peters are putting together really impressive reports every quarter. I absolutely think Schauer is actually now the favorite over Tim Walberg, and I think Peters has a very legitimate shot at Knollenberg.
4. MO-09 is looking more and more plausible as we go along. I think either Gaw or Baker could hold this seat for the Dems.
5. For those who know the race and care about the seat, Donald Betts filed on the normal deadline in KS-04, instead of adding a second report (unless he’s done it in the last hour). He raised around $55K, IIRC.
KS-4 – We have a state senator running on our end who I am under the impression of running a competent campaign.
MO-9 – BROCK OLIVO SMASH ALL! Where’s Brock?
Very impressive quarter. I’m glad she got into this race last year against Hulshof and has carried her momentum through to this open seat.
Um who is defending MO-09? I hope the GOP is defending because with the DCCC cash advantage this race could be a likely pick up. But I’m thinking this race is Dems holding due to what someone said above…
I’m not to worried about Boyda her COH advantage is still good and Ryun still has to beat a better funded primary opponent.
Tim Walberg, Joe Knollenberg, and Graves all look to be in a fight judging from the money race.