Rasmussen (7/24, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):
Tom Udall (D): 59 (58)
Steve Pearce (R): 34 (30)
(MoE: ±4%)
I’m guessing Tom Udall and Mark Warner are now in a bit of friendly competition to see who can beat their sad-sack opponents by a bigger margin, because Udall just keeps upping his percentage. Pearce did regain some ground this month, although his numbers aren’t as high as the 37 he posted in May or the 40 he posted in April.
Check out the favorables, too: Udall is at 66% very or somewhat favorable, 28% very or somewhat unfavorable. Pearce is at 46% very or somewhat favorable, 48% very or somewhat unfavorable. I don’t think any amount of advertising is going to move those numbers enough to make a difference (not that the NRSC is going to be able to make the effort).
If something were to happen to the current Senator Warner or Dominici, it’s obvious who to appoint in the remainder of the term! Hell, to benefit their own states of VA and NM they should resign and let Gov. Warner and Rep. Udall have some seniority over the other Democrats who are going to be freshmen in this class.
These two races are as safe as they can be given we currently don’t hold the seats. Maybe instead of Tier 0 for the four races (VA, NM, CO, NH) I should list VA & NM as Tier -1 and let CO & NH be Tier 0 (although I think that CO & NH are going to be won by Democrats).
he needs to step up and support some of the other candidates in not such a strong position.
I recently received an e-mail from Udall’s campaign asking me to vote for him in a contest done by Harry Reid’s PAC. I didn’t vote for Udall but he won the contest anyway. A few days later I received another e-mail from another PAC asking me to vote for Udall.
Now I understand that the race for NM-Senate is not over but I don’t think its right for his campaign to hoard money when he is going to destroy Pearce come November. I mean he has twice as much cash yet he is still scooping up funds that could be better spent in other races. The $5,000 from Reid’s PAC could go a long way in AK or OR, while in NM it seems paltry compared to how much money he already has compared to Pearce. If I had my way, Tom Udall would step up across state lines much like Obama back in ’04. Same goes for Warner.
Sorry for the long rant but I’ve been brewing on this for a few days.