This Month in Oregon Politics

With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month’s action in Oregon politics.  In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Stock Watch:

Who is up and down in Oregon politics this month:

Up: Jeff Merkley.  Fresh off his best fund-raising quarter ever, Merkley erased a 9% deficit to Gordon Smith during the past month, even though Smith was on the air and Merkley largely was not.

Down: Gordon Smith.  Already flailing about, Smith appears desperate to show that he is really a centrist, despite all the evidence to the contrary.  His recent decision not to attend the RNC Convention proves he knows that John McCain is an anchor on his campaign.

Up: Oregon Democrats.  As you will see below, the Oregon Democratic Party has seen rating upgrades in a number of races and has not lost ground anywhere.  With a strong group of candidates at all levels, this could be a banner year for the DPO.

Down: Oregon Republicans.  Down, with no money and with rapidly fading chances at all levels, Oregon Republicans are flailing out wildly.  With the demise of a number of their prized legislative recruits for a number of reasons (Jeff Duyck violating residency requirements, Tony Marino turning out to be crazy) and with a huge cash disadvantage to the Oregon Ds, they are in trouble.

Up: Bill Sizemore.  As much as it pains me to say this, Sizemore had a good month in July.  He qualified all his initiatives and although most, if not all, are unlikely to pass, he still thumbed our noses in it again.

Down: Bill Bradbury.  Long one of my favorite Oregon politicians, Bill Bradbury has fallen hard in the last month.  With the revelation that Bradbury did not investigate potential signature fraud by conservative groups (info here: http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/07/citizens-begin.html) I honestly won’t be too disappointed when Kate Brown replaces him in January.  One of his most visible jobs is to enforce the signature laws and he appears he may not have done so, according to our dear friends at Our Oregon and other wonderful liberal interest groups.

Upcoming Deadlines and Interesting Dates:

August 2-All signature verification must be completed (already done), and ballot measure numbers are assigned.  See below for more.

August 26-Voter’s Pamphlet Statements Due.  A rough version will be posted soon after.

August 29-Last day to withdraw/replace a candidate.  All candidates on the ballot at that point are considered the final candidates.  The only exception is if a candidate dies in a non-federal race, under the state constitution the SOS may elect to postpone the election for a short period of time if necessary.

August 30-The seven day rule for campaign finance reporting goes into effect, requiring all contributions and expenditures made from this date to election day be reported within 7 days.  Currently, candidates have 30 days to report.  Violations are subject to progressively harsher penalties.

Measure by Measure, a Ballot Measure Update:

Assuming that Our Oregon is not successful in its lawsuit over possibly fraudulent signatures on Sizemore’s initiatives, here are the current initiatives for this year’s ballot, numbers to be assigned early next week:

Key:

S-Statutory

C-Constitutional

Numbers listed are initiative petition numbers.  Ballot measure numbers this year will begin with #54 and go sequentially from there.  The four legislative referrals will be first, followed by all the qualified citizen initiatives.

Qualified:

Legislative Referrals:

405-C-Corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

406-C-Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

407-C-Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

408-S-Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S-Makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

19-S-This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

20-S-This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

21-S-This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

25-S-Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

40-S-This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

41-C-Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

109-S-Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Failed to Qualify:

51-S-Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits.  Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

53-S-Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Race Rating Changes:

From my last update, posted here on July 10: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

US Senate: Upgraded from Lean Smith to Tossup.  With the new polling showing Merkley with a small lead, up from 9% down last month, this race has clearly moved to tossup territory.  GAME ON!

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate: OR-14 (West Slope, my home district!), Mark Hass (R), upgrade from Likely Hass to Safe Hass.  Time was this was a competitive district, not anymore.  When last this seat was up, the registration gap was 3k, now its 10k.  With Michaels not raising nearly enough cash to make this competitive, this race goes off the competitive races board.

Oregon House:

OR-29 (Hillsboro), Riley (D) upgrade from Lean Riley to Likely Riley.  Jeff Duyck was the only real chance the OR GOP had in this district.  With him out of the way since it was revealed he didn’t actually live in the district, it’s hard to believe this one will be too close, especially with former GOOPer Terry Rilling running as an independent.

OR-35 (Tigard), Galizio (D) upgrade from Leans Galizio to Likely Galizio.  With Marino becoming more and more of a laughing stock every day, Galizio looks poised to win by far his biggest win of his three races here.

OR-38 (Lake Oswego), Garrett (D) upgrade from Lean Garrett to Likely Garrett.  I know Steve Griffith (R) personally, he’s a nice guy and I respect him a lot.  That being said, he’s going to get his ass kicked in this district as he has been seemingly unable to raise nearly the amount of $ required to be competitive.

OR-51 (Clackamas), Flores (R), upgrade from Lean Flores to Tossup.  With the large amount of cash Flores’s opponent Brent Barton (D) has managed to raise in this district, he has certainly made this one a close race.  It should be fun to watch.

Let me know what you think.