First up, Michigan’s 7th, where GOP Rep. Tim Walberg has released an internal poll conducted by National Research (7/8-9, likely voters):
Mark Schauer (D): 31
Tim Walberg (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±5.7%)
This isn’t the first poll that shown Walberg with a sizable lead; an EPIC-MRA survey from earlier this year pegged the race at 51-40 for Walberg. While Walberg’s lead may not be quite as exaggerated as it is in this internal poll, Schauer clearly has some work to do here. The same poll also found McCain leading Obama by 48-37 in the 7th CD, which may or may not be a bit suspect in a district that supported Bush by 51-46 and 54-45 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.
Over in New Mexico’s 1st CD, Republican Darren White has released an internal poll of his own, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (7-22/23, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):
Martin Heinrich (D): 41 (33)
Darren White (R): 47 (51)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
White is touting this poll in order to refute a Heinrich internal poll from earlier this month that showed the Democrat leading by three points, but he’s not publicizing the trend lines from the last internal poll he released in October of last year, which I’ve included above. Heinrich has closed the gap considerably, and has some room to grow: While White’s name recognition is 78%, Heinrich is at 65%, indicating that he hasn’t nearly reached his ceiling yet. This one will be a real battle.
SSP currently rates MI-07 as Lean Republican and NM-01 as a Tossup.
Both races are essentially a dead heat after adjusting for the internal poll bias. I’ve had both as tossups for many months, as have most reliable analysts.
Heinrich is doing good he closed the gap by 12 points. And considering he has 13% less name recognition he still has plenty of time to gain support. Though Heinrich has about half the COH of white the DCCC can make up for that. Though I’m sure Heinrich will get some coat tails from Obama and Udall.
Well given the 2006 race and the 2008 environment, I had hoped that a poll for MI-07 would be a little more concrete and tigher than Walberg up 16, with 22% undecided, and a MOE at 6%. Granted I know it’s an internal poll on the GOP side, so that weighs into it. So we definitely need to see some more independent polling go on for these toss-up and lean US House races. Hopefully my latest financial contribution to MI-07 will help get that name recognition up!
NM-01 is going to be a tough race for the Democrats given it’s probably the GOP’s best recruiting effort across the country. I think we can still win it out with Obama and Udall at the top of the ticket.
is definitely closer. Schauer has a good deal more money than Walburg.
I never trust anything known as an “internal poll.” There’s a high risk of bias and info manipulation. Both these guys gave themselves a 47% (apparently that’s a very popular number, it’s one of my personal favourites). Do internal polls work the same way as regular ones, except they are conducted by the party?
There’s a decent chance we could end up winning the strongly republican NM-02 and losing the much more favorable NM-01. Teague seems to be running a solid campaign.
1. Yeah, there’s still a lot of work to do. That’s true, and can’t be ignored.
2. The poll was taken over July 8-9, which is before Schauer lawn signs came out and before a big push of Schauer town halls. Those might not reach everyone, but they are pushing up the name id.
3. The Walberg folks sat on this for a while, which makes me think that they’re mostly releasing it as a response to Schauer outraising him (again). I don’t doubt that the poll is statistically sound, but I wonder about the timing, especially since this is the first internal poll I’ve seen them release.
4. In the EPIC/MRA poll you cited, Walberg had abysmal job approval ratings (somewhere in the upper 30s, with disapproval one point higher), which means there’s definitely room to grow. That just means we’ve got to work a little harder.
5. My gut feeling right now is that if it were Election Day, Walberg would be at about 43% and Schauer would be at about 38%, and there’d be a bunch of people that make up their minds in the voting booth. There are enough people dissatisfied with Walberg that we can pull this off, it’ll just take some work.
Then again, I could be wrong about all of this.