Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 40 (37)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 49 (51)
(MoE: ±3.4%)
This is the second poll in a row to show Dole with a nine-point lead, and with neither candidate on the airwaves right now, I think we can assume that this race is moving into a holding pattern around this mark for now. The good news is that Hagan’s well within striking distance, and I expect this race to tighten up considerably in the fall.
Bonus finding: McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.
hagan’s slide has stopped, which tells me that it was Dole’s ad campaign that moved the numbers. Soon both sides will be engaged, the polls will tighten and this will remain a top-tier race.
getting closer . . .
It seems Schumer is determined to have Hagen win as well, she’ll have every resource she’ll ever want to win the race. I expect a nail biting photo finish come Nov. here.
McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.
If Obama wins as big a share of the white vote as shown in this poll (a big if), he’ll win North Carolina. The PPP poll has the black vote on 82 O/8 M/5 B. Obama will win 90% of the black vote. Such an outcome, again holding the white vote the same, would have Obama winning in this poll.
The poll included 77% white – 20% black breakdown. The actual breakdown of registered voters as of 12/31/07 was 75% white – 23% black.
If you add those black voters in, the races would be:
Obama 46%
McCain 45%
Dole 47%
Hagan 42%
And even this ignores thousands of new voter registrations from 2008, when the contested presidential primary came to NC in May.