WA-08, WA-02: Reichert Leads Burner By 6

SurveyUSA (7/27-29, likely voters, 6/16-17 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 44 (45)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 50 (51)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

The good news is: it looks like SurveyUSA is going to be polling the race in WA-08 every month, all the better to track the progress of netroots fave Darcy Burner. The bad news is: the race is basically static since last time, with Burner still down by 6. The candidates don’t seem to be doing paid media yet, though, so nothing has really happened in the last month to move the numbers (other than Burner’s house fire, which at least got her in the news for a few days).

One piece of good news, though: this poll finds the candidates tied among independents 45-45 (an improvement from last month, where Reichert led among indies by 13). If Burner can bolster her numbers among Democrats (16% of whom are defecting to support the ostensibly moderate Reichert), she’ll be right in this thing.

Survey USA (7/27-29, likely voters, 6/16-17 in parens):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 58 (56)

Rick Bart (R): 37 (38)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Inexplicably, SurveyUSA also keeps polling WA-02, which isn’t on anyone’s map. Had Rick Bart (a fairly high-profile guy, as the former sheriff of Snohomish County) gotten into the fundraising game a lot earlier, he might have at least been able to get this into ‘likely D’ territory. But right now, he’s sitting on $0 CoH, having raised and spent $31,456 in Q2.

13 thoughts on “WA-08, WA-02: Reichert Leads Burner By 6”

  2. If Rick Bart had picked any other year to run, I think he would have a real shot at unseating Larsen.  As it is, he stands no chance this year.

  3. I didn’t manage to find party ID numbers for Washington. I do notice that this month’s poll has Republicans as 35% of the sample, Democrats at 34% and independents at 27%.

    Is this credible? I ask because this is a blueing D+2 district and I’d expect that to be one of the places where the fall in Republican numbers would be felt the most.

  4. They polled it because a local TV station paid them to poll it.  SurveyUSA is running a business and their folks need to eat.  Most of their polls are for media who pay them.

    Now, you can legitimately ask why the local TV station paid for a WA-02 poll when it’s on no one’s radar screen as a competitive race.

    But SurveyUSA will poll your local po-dunk school board race if you’ll pay them to do it.

  6. Burner only leads by 3% among women.  Is she emphasizing the right issues?  It also may be more difficult for a female “geek” to win an election.

    Also, what about working-class voters?  She may have trouble connecting with them, I’m wondering.  And did she pull the wrong t-shirt when the fire broke out?  Just some questions.  She really hasn’t made any real progress in her second run for Congress.

    My rating:  Lean Republican.  She’s never led in a poll this cycle.

Comments are closed.