Rasmussen (7/29, likely voters incl. leaners, 6/25 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 42 (41)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This is about where I’d expect the race to be at this point. Lunsford is within striking distance, but will need to a few good hits on McConnell to close the gap.
SSP currently rates this race as “Likely Republican“.
UPDATE: Yet another poll showing roughly the same picture. Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters, 5/7-9 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 38 (36)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 49 (48)
(MoE: ±4%)
MT-Pres
McCain and Obama tied at 47%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
I would put this at the far end of Leans R. Close to Favored R but not quite. He is right on the cusp for me. ME, MN, NC, MS, OR on the same ranking in that order. These six states will decide how big the D advantage will be going into the next congress. AK, CO, NH, NM and VA should all be pickups.
I’m starting to notice a trend in terms of statewide elections in Kentucky dating back in 2004:
2004 KY-Sen.: Bunning narrowly ekes out a win by 2 points to relative unknown Democrat Daniel Mongiardo.
2007 KY-Gov.: Steve Beshear (D) takes the governorship over incumbent Ernie Fletcher (R) in a landslide.
One lost, one win, so I’m guessing in 2008…
2008 KY-Sen.: McConnell ekes out win against Lunsford by either 2-4 points?
Which means, in 2010:
2010 KY-Sen.: If Bunning runs again, he’ll lose (hopefully to Ben Chandler).
So….I can’t wait till 2010!