Ivan Moore Research releases a pair of Alaska polls, taken before and after Stevens’ indictment (7/30-31, likely voters, 7/18-22 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 56 (51)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 35 (43)
(MoE: ±4.8%)
Since the indictment, Alaskans aren’t feeling as warm towards Stevens — that’s no surprise. The percentage of voters with a positive impression of the incumbent fell from 55% to 44% in Moore’s second poll. His negatives also rose accordingly — from 38% to 48% two weeks later.
Despite his favorables taking a hit, Stevens still has a commanding lead in the GOP primary:
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 59 (70)
Dave Cuddy (R): 19 (21)
Other: 2 (2)
Undecided: 20 (7)
(n=219)
“Other” presumably includes self-funding beardo Vic Vickers, whose frequent swipes against “Big Oil” aren’t likely to get him very far in a resource-dependent state.
Things are certainly looking good right now for Mark Begich.
Bonus finding: In the 7/18-22 poll, McCain leads Obama by a mere three points in the state — 47% to 44%.
Holy mother of God- look at those numbers!
What does this mean for Rep. Don Young now?
Maybe Ivan Moore caught the “Stevens Effect.
How credible is this polling firm?
And could we please see more numbers for Don Young against Parnell or Berkowitz? They make me feel better about the chances of change in Alaska.
On Tuesday there was two polls showing Parnell beating Young and Berkowitz with a small lead over Parnell in the general. Feel better?
it looks like Alaska is pretty clearcut- 42-43% baseline for any Republican, about 44-45% for Democrats, and 12% or so swing voters with a history of pretty strong Republican lean.
This year the swing vote is looking very anti-incumbent.