OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll

SurveyUSA (8/2-4, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 37

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 49

Dave Brownlow (C): 8

(MoE: ±4%)

A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith’s improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.

The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect. SUSA’s partisan sample of Oregon has fluctuated in recent months, from 32R-44D in April to 32R-48D in May to 41R-42D in June. Where lies the truth? CNN’s 2004 exit poll pegged turnout as 34R-32D-34I, but surely the landscape is now tinted with a bluer hue four years later. In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That’s a significant advantage that you don’t see reflected in SUSA’s model.

That said, Merkley’s 63-28 performance among Democrats in the poll is of concern, as it could reflect Gordon Smith’s recent bipartisan bear-hugs of Barack Obama and lately even John Forbes Kerry (whom Gordo once harshly criticized as advocating “all kinds of socialism”). However, I still think this race is closer than SUSA’s latest survey suggests.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

11 thoughts on “OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll”

  1. is that, beyond weighting to the census, they do not make any artificial assumptions about anything. They could be wrong, but they did not just arbitrarily decide the party split in OR is 37R/41D/22I. Party ID is an attitude, not a tattoo.  

  2. Count me among the 28% of Democrats who won’t be voting for Jeff Merkley. There are a significant number of us who are still bitter about the massive stealth contributions Chuckie &  Co. made in the last weeks of Merkley’s primary campaign.

    The way it was done was profoundly and deliberately deceptive.

    While Merkley might be “better” than Gordon Smith, the choice is still between Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.

Comments are closed.