TN-01, TN-07, TN-09: Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in Tennessee. We’ll be using this thread to keep track of the results of the Democratic contest for TN-09, and we’ll keep an eye on TN-01 and TN-07, where there is some hot wingnut on wingnut action taking place.

RESULTS: Associated Press | TN-09

11:49PM: (Exhales) It’s over in TN-01: Phil Roe beats David Davis by 500 votes! What a sadsack loser Davis is. Over in TN-09, Cohen has crushed Tinker by a 38,000-vote margin with 98% in. Hope you enjoyed the evening, EMILY’s List!

11:29PM: I think they’re taking a ganja break over in TN-01.

11:03PM: A few more votes are trickling in: Roe’s lead is now back down to 1200 votes with 84% reporting.

10:43PM: Our back of the envelope analysis says that Davis would have to perform 16 points better than he has all night in the remaining precincts in order to eek out a win. Looks doubtful…

10:36PM: With 83% in, Cohen now has a 34,000 vote lead over the odious Nikki Tinker. That sound you hear is me engraving her political tombstone. And it feels… so… good.

10:22PM: 80% now reporting in TN-01, and Roe is now leading by 1500. Over in TN-09, Steve Cohen has grown his lead to 32,000 votes with 80% in. Fuck yeah!

10:17PM: Over in TN-01, 73% of the vote is in, and Roe is clinging to that 1200 vote lead. Over in Memphis, Nikki Tinker’s political career is dead at 19%.

10:07PM: I sure hope EMILY’s List is enjoying the egg all over their faces right now. With 67% of the vote in, Cohen has a 30,000-strong lead. SSP calls the race for Steve Cohen!

9:54PM: For TN-09 results, check here. With 55% of precincts reporting, Cohen is crushing Tinker by 79-19. (H/T: MinnesotaMike)

9:52PM: In TN-01, Roe is up by 1000 votes with 65% in.

9:44PM: Alright. Finally, some TN-09 numbers. Cohen leads by over 14,000 votes (81-17) so far. Nice.

9:37PM: With 53% counted, Roe has expanded his lead over Davis to nearly 1200 votes.

9:33PM: 38% in now, and Roe is up by 700 votes. Over in TN-07, Leatherwood is officially driftwood.

9:27PM: With 26% in, Roe is up by 500 votes (51-49).

9:10PM: Roe has pulled back ahead by 60 votes with 21% in. Over in TN-07, Leatherwood is getting smoked.

9:07PM: Davis is back on top by a mere 35 votes (16% reporting).

9:02PM: Roe has expanded his lead over Davis to 450 votes (52-48) with 12% in.

8:52PM: Some more votes in: Roe leads Davis by 300 votes with 7% in. Still nothing from Memphis yet.

8:40PM: With 2% reporting in TN-01, Roe has pulled ahead of Davis by a 51-48 margin. Obviously, it’s pretty early in the night. In TN-07, Blackburn has a big early lead: 73-27.

8:30PM ET: With 1% reporting in TN-01, incumbent David Davis is up by 50-49 (and 20 votes) against challenger Phil Roe. Over in TN-07, with 1% reporting, Marsha Blackburn has an early 60-40 lead over Tom Leatherwood. Nothing in TN-09 yet.

161 thoughts on “TN-01, TN-07, TN-09: Primary Results Thread”

  3. Tinker gets less than 20% of the vote. Cohen wins with 65% or better, and she becomes a cautionary tale.

    But I am not sure that we live in a just world. I’ll take any kind of Cohen win….

  10. Davis barely won in 2006.  Roe is a popular mayor and has been endorsed by practically every newspaper.  Of course, no one expected a Davis loss because they weren’t analyzing every race.

    1. After researching both Davis and Roe I think Roe is more impressive and populist than Davis. I like his message against all these special interests as well.

      1. you didn’t know about DC’s.  Wow,  I’ve been looking at that for a couple of years.  Maybe we should put up a thread listing out which sites everyone here visits so that people who are missing out on some sites can find them.  

        1. It’s wonderful when people can see through the smokescreens of religious bigotry, racism, and sexism.

  13. With 53% of precincts in, Roe is up 51-48. Looks like this race is going back and forth, although that’s a fairly decent lead with only half the counting left.

  14. If you disagree with James L. and his ultra-liberal thinking then he simply blocks you.  James L. (the blog editor) thinks that liberals will win every seat this year (good thinking James L).  I disagree, liberals are equally detested in this nation as are conservatives.  Where was James L. when conservative to moderate Democrats were the individuals that brought Democrats into power in 2006?

    Also, I think it’s time for James L. to predict races instead of doing cut and paste’s from other websites.  Doesn’t look like http://www.mydd.com and http://www.politics1.com do as much cut and paste as James L.’s SSP does.  James??  Who’s going to win between Roe and Davis.  Make a prediction and stop making your conservative rankings.  Maybe, if you call yourself a political pundit (more less a liberal pundit) then start making predictions now.

    What seats are Democrats going to win or lose?  Do you still rate the Boyda vs. Jenkins race as Leans Democrat?  If you want a cut and paste website then James L. has delivered one for you.  

  15. I got 40.87% in

    79.63% for Steve Cohen.

    18.24% for the Horrible Nikki Tinker

    This is so extremely excellent. I am happy.

  16. 53% in now, and Roe’s lead has grown to 1200 votes, and it’s now 51-49. Hopefully he can pull this one off. He sounds like a better Republican than Davis, and I’d like a few incumbents to lose.  

  17. I say Roe wins…Who does James L. (the so-called pundit) expect to win?  We’re still waiting to see his rating.  53% of precincts have already reported.

  18. Based on early votes and absentee ballots results, Cohen leads with 80.56 percent of the votes. His main challengers, attorney Nikki Tinker and state Rep. Joe Towns Jr., trail with 17.22 percent and 1.44 percent, respectively.

    That’s from the Commercial Appeal:

    http://www.commercialappeal.co…

  19. Roe is the better candidate.  He also has executive experience as mayor of Johnson City.  He will be far more moderate than Davis.

  23. My faith in human beings is partially restored. Shame on Harold Ford, the CBC and EMILY’s List.

  28. in TN-01, and it’s Roe again by 1200 votes. This is turning into a nailbiter. I wish I knew where the outstanding votes were. If the these votes so far have come from Roe’s base, the Johnson City area then it could go for Davis in the end, especailly if Davis’ base has yet to report.  

  29. Last night’s worst person in the world according to Keith Olbermann was Nikki Tinker.

    Tonight I officially nominate the voters of TN-09th as the best persons in the world for standing up to anti-semitism and gutter trash politics.

  30. It seems they rarely help candidates win races. I’m not sure what they’re doing, but they might want to try something different.

  31. I am damn proud of the Democrats in TN-09 right now, well done on keeping a strong progressive like Steve Cohen 🙂

  32. Most of the counties are all reporting, except Greene and Hancock, which have no precincts reporting.

    However, in 2006, Roe smoked Davis 4732-1348 in Greene County and 520-129 in Hancock County.

    What’s left are Roe’s strongholds. Davis is probably done…I’m willing to make the call now.

    1. that’s a better site…and it gives you direct links to articles (as oppossed to cut and paste).  The editor and publisher only want liberal points viewed here.  More or less censorship (and I though liberals were oppossed to that).

  34. No reason why it should have been close. He won the open seat primary in 2006 handily with less money than five of his opponents. This time he faced a less formidable opponent who had less campaign money. This was a done deal before it even started.

  36. Makes me happy to be an American!  On days when I still think we are more racially and religiously divided, those goes to show that fear and prejudice aren’t as alive as I thought they might be.

    Thank you people of TN-09!!!!

  37. But in the TN-Sen Democratic primary former Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke (the strongest candidate in the race) looks like he will win fairly easily.  

  38. The defeat of Davis is the first defeat of a conservative against a moderate in the Republican primary (sort of a swap for Gilchrest’s loss, yet not as much).  Roe will more or less be a conservative in the mold of Jo Ann Emerson and not a Patrick McHenry type.

  39. Clearly, Cohen’s defeat of Tinker is a sweet, sweet thing.  The (s)Tinker needed to get pushed down for this.  

    The underlying narrative is, “What does this mean for Barack Obama?” or….i.e. how will the traditional media frame it?”

    Storyline # 1:

    “Barack Wields Huge Influence: Endorsement Helps Satisfy a Primary”

    This narrative would fit into two frameworks.  One, look at the primaries in the GA House Rep race (Barrow), as well as the Senate race, (Martin).  Then he weighes in late in a heavily African-American district against the black candidate, and his voice carries.  

    Additionally, attempts to stick the “threat” of him doesn’t stick to others — i.e. Cazayoux, Childers.

    OR….

    The traditional media could try and spin it as “African-Americans secretly fuming at Memphis seat loss.”

    Gee…I wonder what the traditional media will try to go for.  

  40. I had actually forgotten about the primary in Tennessee today, I am so very, very proud of the people of Memphis that they were able to see past the race baiting, racism, and all the other crap that Tinker threw at Cohen. This was one of the MOST upsetting races of the entire year, and actually upset me more than Clinton v Obama…. Yeah, I KNOW… that’s how pissed I was. I hope Tinker goes, crawls under a rock and NEVER sees the light of day again. What is she anyway? State representative or something? I’m willing to send her next primary opponant a decent check come next election to make sure she NEVER represents anyone again.

  42. … anyone wanna comiserate over how the results out of Memphis tonight bode for our boy Don Cazayoux down in LA-06 in November?

        2. I don’t think so. Interestingly he is ranked 430/435 on the congressional power ranking. Ouch! Apparently that is below Puerto Rico’s representative’s ranking. TN-01’s constituents are getting shafted.  

        3. but he was just elected in 2006 and from the ontheissues page it would seem he has a pro-war record.

          http://www.ontheissues.org/Hou…

          His wiki page seems to indicate he might support some kind of comprehensive immigration reform, so perhaps he is less of a wingnut than the other, seems to be very pro-business.

      2. I like this site, it gives me more news, polls, fundraising reports, analysis than all of the dozen other sites I read combined, including Cqpolitics, Sabato, Cook, and Dailykos, combined. I would be lost in my political prognosticating without this site.  

      3. I’ve never seen a single person banned who didn’t have it coming.  And no this website does not think all liberals win.  At times I think many here are too pessimistic.  

        And as for cut and paste?  Posting stories linked to other websites are part of all blogs.  Daily Kos does the same thing.  Now everything on every blog is completely original.  This website gives plenty of credit to those who write stories.

          1. Thursday 7 August 2008 polling hours 8:00a EDT (1200 UTC) / 8:00a CDT (1300 UTC) to 8:00p EDT (0000 UTC) / 7:00p CDT (0000 UTC). The polls close at the same GMT/UTC time, that is, polls close at a particular local time in the advanced time zone and close one hour earlier local time in the lagging time zone.

        2. I was pissed when they first supported Tinker.  She really crapped all over EMILY’s list with her performance, however, and I couldn’t be happier about that.  Hopefully, EMILY’s list will not try to primary an incumbent with a 100% pro-choice record again.  It’s not like there aren’t plenty of other pro-choice women candidates running against Republicans.

          1. Looking at heir websites, they both seem far right-wing. Roe does seem to be less for big business, although very conservative on other stuff. I actually don’t mind seeing a Republican Party that is shaped more by corporations than other issues, because I think it makes them look worse, so I guess in that regard I would prefer a Davis win. Although in general a wingnut is a wingnut.

          2. She gets to 42 or 43%, then I think she runs again, unless some leaders in the black community convince her not to put Memphis through this shit again.

          3. After her performance this time, I doubt the CBC, EMILY’s List or any other group will support her, her cash will dry up and she’ll get a fraction of whatever support she gets tonight.  And just to repeat it one more time, but they really should be ashamed of themselves.

          4. She’ll never defeat Cohen in the future, that’s why she ran now and why she put out such desperate attack ads, it’s her only shot. She can run until the cows come home and it won’t change anything.

          2. he’s a centrist Democrat. Which is the pits. There’s no place, Democratic blogs are generally liberal, and I’ll be the first to tell you their are some real jackasses, not here, this site has some high quality people, but Dkos and others, nah. And then, your other options redstate, and the last time I was on there I was told there was a special place for me in hell because I thought the enemy detainees deserved a fair trial under the consititution because foreign military bases are considered American soil, and international law is against here andwe are not representign ourselves well. Oh well.

  44. I believe that TN-1 hasn’t sent a Democrat to the House since before the Civil War.  Looking at the vote totals tonight, I can see why–51.6K total Repub; 6.1K total Dem.

  45. from David Davis’ Wikipedia page, they say he favors “amnesty” just because he was quoted as saying he didn’t want think deporting every single illegal immigrant was the solution.

    I wonder if that played a role in this too.  Roe’s website doesn’t give his position on immigration.  Did Roe campaign as a Tom Tancredo Republican?

    1. I’m not sure the percentage margin, but it was a 4,000 vote victory last time and he did win some heavily black precincts with less campaign money then many of his opponents. I really think the country is less polarized on race than on ideas, which is why Cohen is able to win over corporate-backed Democrats. It’s another progressive victory in a Democratic district tonight, which is fantastic.

      3. much, thanks for the new political site though. I’ll take as many as I can get, though this site tends to cover everything, so many different sites and polling, information I don’t really get elsewhere. I don’t mind the blockquoting, most of it is insightful information. With your record though, when James gets back on he’s going to ban you again.

        1. I dont mind seeing a few of my party’s incumbents lose too. Its just the only two that have so far I wanted to win! lol. Maybe this will be the first one that does indeed lose when I want him to.

          But even at 53% its still way too early to get my hopes up.

        1. 21,000 votes? I’d wager it’s absentee ballots or maybe early voting, if Shelby County has that?

          1. First term, so he’s vulnerable to a primary challenge.  Duncan, on the other hand, has been in Congress for decades and often runs unopposed.  Given the limited resources of the eastern TN nutjob faction, they probably decided to focus all the firepower on Davis rather than Duncan.

  47. how long before tinker runs as a 3rd party candidate for something?  i do think that this ugly campaign will really change the way emily’s list behaves in the future.  so thank you nikki tinker for doing this small service.

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