Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Russ Warner (7/15-16, likely voters):
Russ Warner (D): 37
David Dreier (R-inc.): 49
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Here’s a poll from CA-26, a race that got some initial enthusiasm earlier in the year but hasn’t received much attention lately. This is an R+4 district that takes in the affluent parts of the San Gabriel Valley between Los Angeles and San Bernardino; it’s one of the few districts in California that qualifies as a swing district, and one where Dreier hasn’t broken out of the mid-50s in the last few elections despite drawing third-tier opposition.
The poll is an internal poll commissioned by Dem candidate Russ Warner. Unlike many internal polls, this one seems pretty plausible: long-term incumbent Dreier is up by a solid margin, but not to the extent that the race is completely locked down. The race tightens to 47-44 when candidates’ bios are read.
SSP rates this race as Likely Republican.
That the numbers for both candidates when their bios are read are the same as the matchup numbers for McCain-Obama in the district (McCain ahead by 3 points: 47-44)