No, that’s not a typo. Inspired by DailyKos diarists Senate 2008 Guru (whose own blog can be found here) and jedinecny, why don’t we look ahead–far ahead–to 2010 and ponder what the Senate race picture might look like. 34 seats are up for grabs in 2010, 19 held by Republicans, and 15 by Democrats:
Alabama (Shelby-R)
Alaska (Murkowski-R)
Arizona (McCain-R)
Arkansas (Lincoln-D)
California (Boxer-D)
Colorado (Salazar-D)
Connecticut (Dodd-D)
Florida (Martinez-R)
Georgia (Isakson-R)
Hawaii (Inouye-D)
Idaho (Crapo-R)
Illinois (Obama-D)
Indiana (Bayh-D)
Iowa (Grassley-R)
Kansas (Brownback-R)
Kentucky (Bunning-R)
Louisiana (Vitter-R)
Maryland (Mikulski-D)
Missouri (Bond-R)
Nevada (Reid-D)
New Hampshire (Gregg-R)
New York (Schumer-D)
North Carolina (Burr-R)
North Dakota (Dorgan-D)
Ohio (Voinovich-R)
Oklahoma (Coburn-R)
Oregon (Wyden-D)
Pennsylvania (Specter-R)
South Carolina (DeMint-R)
South Dakota (Thune-R)
Utah (Bennett-R)
Vermont (Leahy-D)
Washington (Murray-D)
Wisconsin (Feingold-D)
On the surface, that’s a fairly good plate for Democrats. Remember, this is the culmination of the 2004 cycle, which by all measures was a disaster for Team Blue with the loss of 5 Southern seats due to retirements (Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina), so the GOP has already squeezed out a fair amount of blood from this class. Perhaps it’s time for the pendulum to swing the other way. It’d be hard to imagine unpopular Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, for instance, running again in 2010. Bunning would leave an open seat for the likes of Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler, who would have a good shot against any Republican, and probably an even better shot should Bunning decide to throw another pitch into the mound. Retirements by Republican incumbents in Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania or Missouri could sweeten the deal even further.
It goes without saying, of course, that national dynamics–such as the popularity of the next President–could seriously alter the playing field beyond anything we can anticipate today. That said, though, this is just for kicks. So: how does 2010 look to you?
WAY early to even see what could happen, one month is a life time in politics!
At first look here is what I see being competitive
Arizona: if God forbid McCain wins in 08 he retires
California: if the governator runs, and runs strong
Colorado: Swing State status, 1st term Senator
Florida: Swing State status, 1st term Senator, unpopular
Iowa: Blue Swing State, Vilsack would be good
Indiana: Red State, could be contested
Kansas: if Selebus runs
Kentucky: Open Seat or very weak incumbent
Misourri: Swing State
New Hampshire: Trending Blue, Northeast Republican becoming extinct
Nevada: They could make a run for it, and it would suck if they got two-in-a-row during this class
Ohio: Trending Blue, more so if we mantain the momentum in 08
Penn: If Specter retires
The map looks VERY good for us here, only two or three that I see that might be competitive for us, at least at first glance.
Kentucky should be a good pickup whether Bunning runs or not.
As I was looking at some of these races, it seemed like there is a possibility that Democrats might have several viable female candidates:
Arizona – Janet Napolitano (Gabrielle Giffords)
Connecticut – Susan Bysiewicz
Florida – Alex Sink
Iowa – Patti Judge
Kansas – Kathleen Sebelius
Missouri – Robin Carnahan
North Carolina – Elaine Marshall (June Atkinson)
Ohio – Jennifer Brunner
Pennsylvania – Allyson Schwartz
South Carolina – Inez Tenenbaum
South Dakota – Stephanie Herseth
Some other possibilities:
Illinois – Lisa Madigan (If Obama is P/VP)
Hawaii – Mazie Hirono (If Inouye retires)
Georgia – Shirley Franklin (If she’s not in the cabinet)
Now, I don’t know the dynamics in any of these states or races, I just thought that was a cool observation. Hell, for all I know none of these women are interested or even popular.
I think these start off at lean Dem to safe, with who I think would be the toughest GOP challenger:
Arkansas (Huckabee)
California (Schwarzenegger)
Colorado (Owens)
Illinois (Kirk)
Maryland (Ehrlich/Steele?)
Nevada (Guinn)
New York (Giuliani)
North Dakota (Hoeven)
Oregon (a defeated Smith?)
Vermont (Douglas)
Washington (Rossi)
Wisconsin (Thompson)
These Dem seats might be tight, depending on if they’re open:
Connecticut – If Rell jumps into an open race?
Hawaii – If Lingle jumps into an open race?
Indiana – If it’s open. Would we run Ellsworth?
I think these GOP seats should be targeted, with possible Dem challenger:
Alaska – Begich
Arizona – (If open) Napolitano
Florida – Sink
Iowa – (If open) Vilsack
Kansas – Sebelius
Kentucky – Chandler
Missouri – Carnahan (either?)
New Hampshire – Lynch
North Carolina – Whomever loses 08 gov primary? Moore?
Ohio – Seems like a deep bench. Wonder is Hackett might get back in?
Oklahoma – Henry
Pennsylvania – Schwartz
South Dakota – Herseth
That’s 13. Here are a few scenarios:
Alabama – Shelby retires, we run Artur Davis.
Georgia – Not sure if there is any way we compete here, maybe Franklin?
Louisiana – I know LA is turning deep red. Would Mitch Landrieu compete with Vitter? Karen Carter, or would that not play at all?
Utah – If Bennett retires, I think Rocky Anderson or Matheson could compete.
That leaves Idaho and South Carolina. I don’t see Crapo getting beat and I don’t really know how batshit crazy S. Carolina is and whether any Dem has a shot for statewide races.
Okay that is my thirty-eight cents. Those races are such a LOOONG way off, but it is fun to speculate. However, I do wish our 08 slate would start to form…..
My Perdictions:
Alabama: Rep. Arthur Davis (D-AL) decides to run either because he’s bored with the House. Wants to get into the Senate. Or because he’s afraid of redistricting or all of the above. He could make it competitive. (Solid Republican if Davis Doesn’t run/Lean Republican if he does.
Alaska: Murkowski seems pretty powerful at this point and she has definitly surpassed her dad in political capital hah. I don’t think we can take this unless a star democrat appears over the next 3 years. (Solid Republican)
Arizona: If McCain somehow wins the Presidency the Freshman replacement could face a tough race. McCain would probably retire if he lost anyway though he’s old and obviously would rather be President than Senator. Gov. Napolitano (D-AZ) is up that year to and could run and would probably win it (if McCain doesn’t run though his crappy Iraq stance could bring him down). (Solid Republican if McCain runs. Lean Republican if there is a GOP Freshman with a Dem. Challenger other than Napolitano. Lean Dem. if it’s Napolitano).
Arkansas: Lincoln should be okay Arkansas likes it’s local Democrats. The best the Republicans could put up is Huckebee and I think if he was going to run for the Senate he would run in 08 against Pryor. (Democrat Favored)
California: Sen. Boxer said she is running again so unless Arnie jumps in I think this is safe. If he does she may have a fight on her hands. I would still favor her by a bit though. (Solid Dem/Lean Dem if Arnie runs)
Colorado: Sen. Salazar is pretty popular right now and if that holds up he probably will be okay. The Colorado GOP could make this race but they are lacking a strong candidate to take him on at least at the moment. They would have to run against both Gov. Ritter and Sen. Salazar I just don’t see a GOP win here. (Democrat Favored)
Connecticut: The Dem. Primary will decide this race unless Rep. Chris Shays is still around and runs. It would still favor the Democrats but Shays could make it a race. (Solid Dem/Lean Dem if Shays runs)
Florida: Sen. Martinez has a low approval rating but the one question is who do the Dems. run. My guess would be Ron Klein though i’m not sure if he’d do it. Besides I don’t see very many Democrats that could be him despite his unpopularity. (No clear favorite)
Georgia: Isakson is an idiot but Georgia likes it’s idiots. I hope Rep. Bobby Scott (D-GA) runs. He’s a moderate guy that could give Isakson a race and we could replace Scott with a Liberal. I’m acctully hoping he runs in 08 but I think he ruled that out. (Solid Republican/Republican Favored if Scott runs).
Hawaii: I expect a retirement here. The only Republican that could pull it off would be the Governor and i’m not sure if shes interested in the Seante or not. Democrats run the newly elected Rep. to the 2nd district (the name escapes me at the moment) or Rep. Neil Abercrombie (though I think he would be a little old to start a Senate carrier. (Solid Democrat/No Clear Favorite if Governor runs.)
Idaho: Sen. Crapo won with 99% last time I don’t see how we can beat him. (Solid Republican)
Illinois: If Sen. Obama wins the Freshman could face a bit of trouble or could be corrupt if placed by Gov. Blago. But if the Illinois GOP is as bad as it is today we should be fine. (Solid Democratic)
Indiana: If Bayh runs again we are fine if not than we better hope some of our current freshman congressman are up to the challenge. I’d say the GOP would be favored if he did retire. (Solid Dem is Bayh runs/Lean Republican if he doesn’t)
Iowa: If Sen. Grassley runs again it is his. If Grassley retires it is up for grabs. (Solid GOP/No Clear Favorite)
Kansas: If Gov. Sebelius or Rep. Nancy Boyda or Rep. Dennis Moore run it could be a race. (Solid GOP/Lean GOP if one of the above runs)
Kentucky: Should be vulnerable to Dem. Takeover. If Sen. Jim Bunning runs again it’s our if not it’s up in the air. Chandler will be a powerful opponent to whoever he faces.
Louisiana: I can’t see us taking this seat sadly I think the GOP will hold this one. (Lean Dem. if Bunning runs no Clear Favorite if he doesn’t)
Maryland: The Dems. should hold this one unless somthing crazy happens. It doesn’t matter whether the incumbent retires or not. (Solid Dem.)
Missouri: If Sen. Bond retires it’s up for grabs. If not than Sen. Bond is favored but he’s not a shoe in. (Lean GOP.)
Nevada: If Sen. Reid runs again the GOP will have a tough time taking this seat. The only one I could see making this a race is Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV) and thats only if he is still in the house by 2010. (Solid Dem/Dem Favored)
New Hampshire: If Sen. Gregg runs again it’s his. If not the Dems. could probably take this i’d probably guess Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) would make a shot if he’s still around. (Solid GOP/Lean Dem. if he retires)
New York: Unless Schumer retires and Guliani or Pataki runs it is safe for the Democrats. (Solid Dem.)
North Carolina: Sen. Burr should be vulnerable. My guess is either Rep. Heath Schuler or Rep. Brad Miller would run for it. (No Clear Favorite)
North Dakota: If Sen. Dorgan or the At Large congressman run for this seat than it is safe. If not than it will be hard to hold. (Solid Dem/GOP Favored)
Ohio: I think the Democrats could win this one the question is who to run. Zack Space? Assumeing he’s still around? (Republican Favored)
Oklahoma: Sen. Coburn has only one fear Gov. Brad Henry (D-OK) whos term will be up the same year. Henry could take Coburn down. (Solid Republican/Lean Dem if Henry runs)
Oregon: If Wyden runs again he has it if not than I think one of Oregons House members should be able to hold it for the Dems.(Solid Dem/Favored Dem if he retires)
Pennsylvania: If Specter Retires than it’s up for Grabs. If Specter runs again it will favor him but he won’t be invulnerable. (Republican Favored/No Clear favorite if he retires.)
South Carolina: Unless Fmr. Gov Hodges or somone incredible steps up this is safe for the GOP. (Solid GOP)
South Dakota: Unless Rep. Stephanie Haserth (D-SD) runs it is safe for the GOP. (Solid GOP/No Clear favorite if Haserth runs).
Utah: Safe for the GOP no matter what heh. (Solid GOP)
Vermont: Safe for the Dems. (Solid Dem)
Washingtion: Murry should’nt face to much trouble maybe another Eastern Washingtion GOP Congressman will try for it. Though he probably will lose just like in 04. (Dem Favored)
Wisconsin: I expect Feingold to get a tough challenge just because the GOP hates him so much. I’m not sure who they will run but I don’t expect Feingold to take it in a cake walk. (Dem Favored)
Well theres probably a few typos in there but it’s kinda late and i’m to lazy to edit. I’m pretty sure ya know what I mean though!
Replacement, the names(actually the name) I’ve heard isn’t Madigan. I’ll say this, don’t you think its a funny coincidence that once the Obama 08 talk really started to heat up Jesse Jackson Jr. decided not to run for Mayor
Forget about Bunning for a moment, what about McConnell? He’s never even mentioned. Nobody seems to think he’s even remotely vulnerable in 08. But he’s not particularly charismatic – even a little awkward and his position and voting record leaves him vulnerable to attacks that he’s too partisan and conservative. And Kentucky’s not Alabama – Bunnning almost lost here in ’04 in what was a terrible year for Democratic senate candidates. With a solid challenger I think he’s vulnerable.
Unless Senator Bayh makes a major blunder, he is safely re elected. One county {Hamilton} routinely gives the GOP 50,000 to 60,000 majorities. Bayh breaks even in. He is almost more popular with the GOP than he is with Demos…..
I’d divide the 2010 GOP crowd into two camps – the younger, unpopular crowd, most of them freshmen, and a huge number of older guys who can’t handle another term and will probably retire as a result.
Regarding freshmen, the big thing about the ’04 cycle is, yes, the GOP knocked off a bunch of open seats when D incumbents retired, but it was a mostly Republican year, and most of those freshmen are incredibly unpopular now, especially in the quasi-purple states. If I were a Republican, I’d especially worry about Burr in NC and Martinez in FL. In NC especially, if Easley decides he can’t be VP and waits to run against Burr instead of Dole, he’d decimate him. As to the others, Coburn may also be vulnerable, as well as being too crazy even for Oklahoma. Murkowski, DeMint and even Thune are in danger of being primaried, but would win the general. Isakson isn’t enjoying life as a freshman in the minority, and is rumored to be planning a run for governor instead of a second term.
As to the old guys, Bunning will almost certainly retire, as will Brownback (term limit pledge, which he seems intent on keeping), Grassley (old and hates being in the minority, cried when Jeffords defected, etc.), (probably) Specter, and quite possibly Voinovich, Bennett, and McCain, who will be 74 in 2010 and will lose his last shot at being president if he can’t win in 2008. Most of these guys are old, in poor health, used to calling the shots, and hate being in the minority. If there are enough Democratic gains in 2008 to make them despair of taking the Senate back in their short remaining lifespan, most of them are likely to just quit.
Gregg is very vulnerable as well. He faced token opposition from an antiwar grandmother in 2004, but could be easily defeated by a younger, properly funded challenger. Whoever doesn’t get the nod to take out Sununu will be champing at the bit to take out Gregg, and NH hates him for his Bush-appeasing stance on the war. Plus, he’s not young, and hates being in the minority as well. If Sununu loses in 2008, which he almost certainly will, Gregg may play it smart and retire.
As to Ds, the D most likely to retire is Inoyue, and we could very well lose that seat to Lingle if she runs for it, though mitigated by probably picking up HI-Gov later. (If Lingle doesn’t run, the seat’s safe D.) Mikulski’s getting up there in years and may also retire, but if Steele’s bid against a completely uninspiring Democrat such as Cardin is any indication, her seat is safe D. Leahy’s the only other old Democrat up for re-election in 2010, and he’s too important to resign now and is enjoying his work in the majority as head of the Judiciary Committee; I see him in until at least 2016. Most of the other D incumbents are younger, predominatly from “blue” states, and none of them face serious problems in the current environment.
Much appreciated!
In my opinion, of the 19 GOP seats up, the ten most vulnerable are:
Kit Bond (R-MO): Possible retirement, low approvals, McAskill (D) edged out incumbent Talent (R) in 2006
Jim Bunning (R-KY): Probable retirement, low approvals, almost lost in 2004 against token opposition due to mental health concerns – however, he is so likely to retire that the KY-GOP would probably have stronger opposition for a likely open seat
Richard Burr (R-NC): Freshman senator, low approvals, small margin of victory in 2004 – race against Elizabeth Dole in 2008 will be bellwether for Burr in 2010
Tom Coburn (R-OK): Much like Burr in NC – freshman senator, low approvals, tighter race in 2004 than election results indicate – race against James Inhofe in 2008 will be bellwether for Coburn in 2010
Chuck Grassley (R-IA): Possible-to-probable retirement despite high approvals, hates being in the minority party (accounts had him in tears when Jim Jeffords left the GOP and temporarily gave majority status to the Democrats), Iowa has trended blue very recently
Judd Gregg (R-NH): Low approvals, NH has trended very blue over the last couple election cycles – race against John Sununu in 2008 will be bellwether for Gregg in 2010
Mel Martinez (R-FL): Freshman senator despite being in his 60s, very low approvals, hands full with managing the RNC
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK): Freshman senator, low approvals, father was bounced from the Governorship in a GOP primary in 2006
Arlen Specter (R-PA): Possible-to-probable retirement, low approvals, oldest Republican up for re-election in 2010, difficult battles in 2004 in both primary and general elections, Bob Casey (D) solidly knocked out Rick Santorum (R), PA has gotten bluer over the last several years
George Voinovich (R-OH): Much like Specter in PA, possible retirement, low approvals, Ohio has developed an anti-GOP sentiment due to corruption scandals, Sherrod Brown (D) solidly knocked out Mike DeWine (R) in 2006
Four freshmen, five possible-to-likely retirements, and Judd Gregg.
I think one thing to keep in mind in ’08 and ’10 is hopefully Iraq will be behind us which will allow us and our candidates to concentrate on issues that will appeal across the board; namely gay rights, separation of church and state and universal health care. Regardless of the battleground, we will not be weakened at all if/when Iraq is not an issue. If anything our candidates will even be stronger as we can concentrate on our real core issues.
MCain etiher gets the Repub. nomination and we get his seat, in which case I’m inclined to believe that Napolitano will appoint a temporary seat holder so she can get it herself, or he doesn’t, and retires out of anger and exhaustion with politics, (and he’d be no young chicken either), and Napolitano gets. She could take on the incumbent McCain, and that might make retire.
I’m pretty sure that Grassley will retire if their is no Republican majority in sight. He’ll be 78 or 76 I believe, and will have been in the senate for 30 consecutive years. With no committee chairmanship in the near future, I think he’ll go ahead and retire. In that case, I think that recently elected Governor Chet Culver will run and win back the very seat his father once held. Anothrer pickup.
Bunning said he was running ofr reelection, and if he does, I can’t see Republicans priamrying him out, and Ben Chandler will most likely run and win, whether Bunning runs for reelction, in which it’s an easy win against a tarred incumbent who voters believe is senile and too old, or a tougher open seat win against a lesser known Republican, and a weaker Kentucky Republican Partyy, (weaker than it is now, I think we’re going to take back the State Senate and the Gubernatorialship). That’s three for us.
I think Mikuluski will run for reelection, but if she doesn’t, Chris Van Hollen would almost certainly run, and he’d probably beat any Republicna, unless 2010 is as Republican as 2006 was Democratic. Ehrlich could give him a tough run though, even in a Democratic leaning year.
I don’t think that Reid will retire, but if he did Jon Porter, or numerous other strong Nevada Republicans could run and give us problems. But, if his health is just fine, I think he’ll go for lucky term number 5, and call it quits after that. Even if Reid does reitre, the state is trending Democrati, so, depending on how unpopular Jim Gibbons gets, the environment their will only get worse and worse for Republicans.
Bond is not retiring, and I don’t see us seriously challening Shelby, Murkowski, or coburn.
We could beat Gregg if we get Jack Lynch to run. Gregg’s got a bad record on the environment, and he’s an ultra-conservative on economic issues, I hate him. But, he feings moderacy. But, Lynch would our only hope against the three term incumbent. With Lynch, we narrowly win this race, a fourth pick up.
Depending on circumstances, Indiana could be compettive if Bayh is made VP, and we get a Democratic Governor to appoint a Replacement, who has to runb for reelection in his own right. Kansas could be competitive with Kathleen Sebelius running for an open seat, but Brownback has to retire if their is to be anything here, and even then, and even if Sebelius runs a well funded prefect campaign, I’d give it less than 60-40 chance of happening, and it would be close, unless the Republican party in Kansas imploded, and they nominated Jim Ryun or Phil Kline.
There’s nothing in Idaho or Illinois, no matter what the circumstances.
Leahy’s seat could be vulnerable if he reitres, which is unlikely, but if he retired, I can’t help but think that Vermont’s popular Republican Governor would run and win it.
Jodi Rell could tkae Dodd’s seat, but Attorney General Richard Blumenthal would be a good Democratic candidate. I think we’re lucky here, because Rell can run for reelection, and might take the sure thing, over the 50/50 one. But, this could also be a Republican gain, negating two Democratic gains.
I don’t really think that Utah or South Dakota will amount to anything unless, unless either become open, and Stephanie Herseth and Jim Matheson, respectively, run.
I think that north Carolina’s Democratic trend and the curse on the seat, nbot to mention Richard Burr’s tepid approval ratings, make it a top target. Either Roy Cooper, Richard Moore, (if he doesn’t run this year), or Beverly Purude, (if she odesn’t run or go for Governor and then win this year), would be great candidates, along with Rep. Brad Miller. I’d say this would be close, and a long campaign, but Democrats come ahead in this one. Another gain.
In Hawaii, I can’t stand Linda Lingle, but they love her. I feel she’s going to run fopr Senate regardless. Our only hope to hold the seat is if Inouye runs for reelection. Even Lingle, a political giant in the state now, can’t tkae down a super popular and respected icon like Inouye, the state’s first senator to the U.S. Senate, and a WWII vet. If now, I see us probably picking up the governorship, but losing this seat. Honolulu’s Republican trend is distubring to say the least.
So many seats. Specter’s definetly retiring, and the the woman who holds Joe Klinko, or the 2004 candidate, I can’t remember his name right now or hers for that matter, would likely run, and win, a pick up that could canecel out the likely loss of Hawaii. Nothings going to happen in South Carolina, Louisiana, North Dakota, or or New York except landsldie reelections. Murray and Feingold never do spectacularly, but both have increased their margins every elections since they were elected, and they’ll probably mantain that trend. Barbera Boxer’s seat is fine, as long as she doesn’t reitre and leave it open to attack by Insurance Commsssioner Poizner, ( wjho I really like), and Arnold Scharwznegger, both could pick it up for Republicans. But, if she runs for a fourth term, bnoth will probably demur, becasue neither can take her down in the abcense of scandal. To finish up, unless Voinovich retires, even with the Democratic trend in Ohio, I don’t see this seat going Democrtatic.
Isakson is safe, and I don’t see a dangerous challenger to Martinez anywhere, and he has to reitre for us to win this seat. Blanche Lincoln hasn’t really done spectacular, but I think she’ll probably get in the range of 59%, depending on how spectacular her Republican candidate is. Even Mike Huckabee couldn’t tkae her down though, especially with her incumbnecy, and her ability to campaign on her growing Seniority on the powerful Finance Committee, and her growing presence in the Democratic caucus, do to her friendship with Harry Reid. Salazar’s safe, even McInnis loses next years primary, and runs in 2010, he couldn’t beat the popular Salazar, especially seeing as how they share the same base, and I think that salzar, as the incumbent, and McInnis as incumbent whose tenure ended in controversy and left office six years before, has the much, much stronger position and precense their.
Just muy thoughts.
North Dakota is going. to. suck. Hoeven vs Dorgan. I love Dorgan and I don’t want to lose this one.
Open seat in Kentucky. Woohoo.
Open seat in Missouri?
Gov Henry in Oklahoma?
If I were Easley, would I rather run against Dole in 08, with presidential turnout, or Burr in ’10, with midterm turnout and no gov race on the ticket? I dunno. He has to know he’s not gonna be VP though. And he better not pass up both races.
Specter: will he ever retire, or is he intending to die in the Senate? Dems are gonna own the governorship for the next ten years (Bobby Casey runs after Rendell). Would he let a Dem appoint his replacement? Does he hate the modern GOP that much?
PS — if Lieberman switches, is there any way Specter switches too? We could give him the chairmanship of Gov Reform…
PPS — if Specter doesn’t retire, would we run against him? Would the GOP turn out for him in a midterm election?
CA: If Schwarzenegger runs, I kinda wish Boxer would retire and let Nunez make the fight. Villaraigosa will be running for Gov at the same time, I presume. I think Boxer would have a hard time with Schwarzenegger.
Also we have GOT to run hard in Florida. Got to got to got to.
Arizona should be fun. It would be so cool to win there.
Gregg should be harder to beat than Sununu, so I’ll want to see how that race turns out in 2008 first. If we win by 5+ than it is ON.
2010 really is a pretty good map for us. I’m worried about North Dakota, and maybe CA, and maybe HI, and that’s IT. Meanwhile I see 8+ races the GOP could lose.
That’s f’in awesome.
Lawd knows the world could end before 2010.
However…
George Voinovich is a LOT more vulnerable then what has been said here. After all, who would have thought that DeWhine could be beaten– and soundly?
It is a darn shame that george doesn’t have to run in 2008… he might get caught in “no man’s land.” For a GOPer that means, getting stuck with defending the invasion of Iraq (which has been POUNDING The Ohio Guard, Reserve and killing a LOT OF ACTIVE DUTY PERSONNEL from our small towns) but not getting any love from the Evangelical Medieval Theocracy© supporters who tried to stage a coup d’tat on the Ohio GOP only to get THRASHED behind Ken Blackwell.
BTW, the truly bad news from Ohio: Racial bigotry is alive and well in America and that includes the heartland. There were notable losses by candidates of color– the most shocking being the loss of Sykes at the statewide level and a General Assembly candidate named Dale Henry from Clark County. Both should have won. (With one exception) the only African American candidates to win were in solid Democratic Districts (as a result of GOP gerrymandering.)
In my almost all white, rural to ex-urban county, all of the Democratic Statewide slate carried except for Sykes. I didn’t see that one coming and am deeply troubled. [Disclaimer: some people argue that other circumstances lead to her demise and they have good points, but I still expected her to win and was stunned by her loss which cost a seat on the all important apportionment board.
I think that we had a clear case of the “Wilder Effect.” (When people lie to pollsters about their bigotry.)