Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Olympic races, that is.
33 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
I haven’t seen any recent polls for this race, I’m curious to know how Musgrove is doing
It’s all Alaska. That is the last big primary I can think of until November. Our ballot will be packe din San Francisco as there are no less than four hotly contested races for Board of Supervisors.
Just been thinking about some races that I doubt are major targets this cycle, besides the Oklahoma Senate race.
OK-Sen: I’m curious still as to what the numbers look like between Inhofe and Rice in the post primary period. Or did I miss them again?
NM-02: After watching that Ed Tinsley comment regarding how his opponent, Harry Teague, was going to “slit the throat” of his nephews, what are the numbers for Steve Pearce’s congressional district? So far the only NM House race that’s been polled was NM-01.
ID-01: SSP has documented many of the bumbling exploits and gaffes of Republican incumbent Bill Sali. I wonder, has his numbers been affected in any way against Democrat Walt Minnick?
AL-05: SSP has documented mainly on the open seat left by Terry Everett, but what about the one held by the retiring Bud Cramer? That’s a pretty conservative part in northern Alabama; can the Democrats hold that one?
And finally, this isn’t up for another two years, but…
NV-Sen. (2010): Senate Guru posted this week about Harry Reid already preparing for his reelection campaign. So I was wondering like with Mel Martinez and Ken Salazar, has any polling firm done some kind of hypothetical matchup between Reid and one or two generic Republican names in Nevada?
My suggesting would be to poll Reid against former Gov. Kenny Guinn and Rep. Jon Porter.
Chris Van Hollen of the DCCC was in town campaigning for Judy Baker (MO-09) today and was campaigning for Kay Barnes (MO-06) yesterday.
Please consider a donation if you want to help out in the Show Me State.
It just seems like Allen can’t get any traction? Is it him or the campaign he’s running? Or have we underestimated Susan Collins?
AL-02:I am hoping to see Bright expand his lead in fundraising and poll numbers. If he does, expect him to win on election day.
AZ-05:I am watching the Republican primary to see if either Anderson, Knaperack, Ogsbury, or Schwickert wins the right to lose to Harry Mitchell in November.
GA-01,GA-03,GA-06:These should be races to watch. I mean, whether it is from Jones’ fundraising, or Camp’s and Gillespe’s ideology. these races could be winnable.
KY-2:I am hoping that Boswell really ramps up on his fundraising. His name recognition is almost sky high, so this one is very winnable.
MO-09:I am watching to see if Judy Baker can ramp up her fundraising, CoH, and name recognition. If successful, this seat will be very winnable.
NY-29:I am watching to see if Massa expands his fundraising and CoH lead. If he does he could, hopefully, defeat Kuhl.
A seat that is often overlooked in my view is one of probably two Democrats who werent elected to new seats in 2006 who will face a major re-election bid. That man is Congressman Marshall (D-GA). News from this race is near zelch and I would like to see more, maybe a poll or two, etc.
For everyone’s amusements I found this Comedy Central story about the OH-15 race rather funny:
I personally would like to see any race in the state of Indiana it has been since June since we’ve had a serious poll done except for IN-09. With Long Thompson finally getting back on the airwaves and McCain’s willingness to hope and pray the state goes R like it always has it would be nice to see numbers. If Obama does pick Bayh thats a big bump to him but we need the coattails to go to Long Thompson or kiss a Senate seat bye bye because no other democrat can win in the state wide level like Bayh does.
So yeah, we all have our expectations on winning the 5 Senate races we all talk about, so anything less than a 56-44 majority would be considered disappointing (as of now).
So that leaves the races I am interested in, the ones where Democrats could go beyond 56 seats: OR, MN, & MS-B.
Oregon-SEN: Can Merkley with the help of the DSCC combat Gordo and carry a state that Obama will take by 10 points?
Minnesota-SEN: Can Franken keep it close to Coleman, win over Democrats, and have Obama coattails pull him over?
Mississippi(B)-SEN: Can Musgrove really win Mississippi where McCain will defeat Obama, Cochran will blow away his Senate race, and Wicker represented 1/4th of the state? It helps that there is no party identification and that Musgrove has won (and unfortunately lost) statewide before.
I’m getting more realistic in my predictions with Maine, North Carolina, and Kentucky in a Likely Retention status. Beyond that, I don’t see how GA, OK, NE, ID, & TX get competitive this year.
My floor is DEM+5 with 56-44 (unless Landrieu loses) with best case DEM+8 to go 59-41 (exceptional).
Garcia is a fantastic progressive running against a horrible, horrible right winger. His fundraising has been great, and he currently has almost 80% of the incumbent’s cash on hand. I just heard from a good source that Garcia has an internal poll that shows him within one point.
I don’t think very highly of Stu Rothenberg, but he put out a good column about Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy’s endorsement of Obama recently. Tony Dungy is an iconic figure in Indiana and almost universally admired by people of all races. Dungy isn’t exactly a liberal either, he’s an evangelical christian and has written a best-selling book about that fact. Dungy went so far as to compare some of Obama’s speeches to Martin Luther King’s. I wonder if the Obama campaign has contacted Dungy about starring in a TV ad. It would probably help Obama’s campaign in that state tremendously.
Is there a nuttier member of the House than Michelle Bachmann? I’d like to see some attention to her challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg. The main thing we need to know about him is that’s he’s sane. That should be enough to get some money going his way. This is Minnesota’s most conservative district, but nonetheless it’s a winnable race for a challenger with the resources. http://www.actblue.com/contrib…
I haven’t seen any recent polls for this race, I’m curious to know how Musgrove is doing
It’s all Alaska. That is the last big primary I can think of until November. Our ballot will be packe din San Francisco as there are no less than four hotly contested races for Board of Supervisors.
Just been thinking about some races that I doubt are major targets this cycle, besides the Oklahoma Senate race.
OK-Sen: I’m curious still as to what the numbers look like between Inhofe and Rice in the post primary period. Or did I miss them again?
NM-02: After watching that Ed Tinsley comment regarding how his opponent, Harry Teague, was going to “slit the throat” of his nephews, what are the numbers for Steve Pearce’s congressional district? So far the only NM House race that’s been polled was NM-01.
ID-01: SSP has documented many of the bumbling exploits and gaffes of Republican incumbent Bill Sali. I wonder, has his numbers been affected in any way against Democrat Walt Minnick?
AL-05: SSP has documented mainly on the open seat left by Terry Everett, but what about the one held by the retiring Bud Cramer? That’s a pretty conservative part in northern Alabama; can the Democrats hold that one?
And finally, this isn’t up for another two years, but…
NV-Sen. (2010): Senate Guru posted this week about Harry Reid already preparing for his reelection campaign. So I was wondering like with Mel Martinez and Ken Salazar, has any polling firm done some kind of hypothetical matchup between Reid and one or two generic Republican names in Nevada?
My suggesting would be to poll Reid against former Gov. Kenny Guinn and Rep. Jon Porter.
Chris Van Hollen of the DCCC was in town campaigning for Judy Baker (MO-09) today and was campaigning for Kay Barnes (MO-06) yesterday.
http://blogs.columbiatribune.c…
I am interested in turning this red district BLUE!
My ActBlue online page for Judy Baker and Kay Barnes is here.
http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…
Please consider a donation if you want to help out in the Show Me State.
It just seems like Allen can’t get any traction? Is it him or the campaign he’s running? Or have we underestimated Susan Collins?
AL-02:I am hoping to see Bright expand his lead in fundraising and poll numbers. If he does, expect him to win on election day.
AZ-05:I am watching the Republican primary to see if either Anderson, Knaperack, Ogsbury, or Schwickert wins the right to lose to Harry Mitchell in November.
GA-01,GA-03,GA-06:These should be races to watch. I mean, whether it is from Jones’ fundraising, or Camp’s and Gillespe’s ideology. these races could be winnable.
KY-2:I am hoping that Boswell really ramps up on his fundraising. His name recognition is almost sky high, so this one is very winnable.
MO-09:I am watching to see if Judy Baker can ramp up her fundraising, CoH, and name recognition. If successful, this seat will be very winnable.
NY-29:I am watching to see if Massa expands his fundraising and CoH lead. If he does he could, hopefully, defeat Kuhl.
A seat that is often overlooked in my view is one of probably two Democrats who werent elected to new seats in 2006 who will face a major re-election bid. That man is Congressman Marshall (D-GA). News from this race is near zelch and I would like to see more, maybe a poll or two, etc.
For everyone’s amusements I found this Comedy Central story about the OH-15 race rather funny:
http://blog.indecision2008.com…
I personally would like to see any race in the state of Indiana it has been since June since we’ve had a serious poll done except for IN-09. With Long Thompson finally getting back on the airwaves and McCain’s willingness to hope and pray the state goes R like it always has it would be nice to see numbers. If Obama does pick Bayh thats a big bump to him but we need the coattails to go to Long Thompson or kiss a Senate seat bye bye because no other democrat can win in the state wide level like Bayh does.
So yeah, we all have our expectations on winning the 5 Senate races we all talk about, so anything less than a 56-44 majority would be considered disappointing (as of now).
So that leaves the races I am interested in, the ones where Democrats could go beyond 56 seats: OR, MN, & MS-B.
Oregon-SEN: Can Merkley with the help of the DSCC combat Gordo and carry a state that Obama will take by 10 points?
Minnesota-SEN: Can Franken keep it close to Coleman, win over Democrats, and have Obama coattails pull him over?
Mississippi(B)-SEN: Can Musgrove really win Mississippi where McCain will defeat Obama, Cochran will blow away his Senate race, and Wicker represented 1/4th of the state? It helps that there is no party identification and that Musgrove has won (and unfortunately lost) statewide before.
I’m getting more realistic in my predictions with Maine, North Carolina, and Kentucky in a Likely Retention status. Beyond that, I don’t see how GA, OK, NE, ID, & TX get competitive this year.
My floor is DEM+5 with 56-44 (unless Landrieu loses) with best case DEM+8 to go 59-41 (exceptional).
Garcia is a fantastic progressive running against a horrible, horrible right winger. His fundraising has been great, and he currently has almost 80% of the incumbent’s cash on hand. I just heard from a good source that Garcia has an internal poll that shows him within one point.
I don’t think very highly of Stu Rothenberg, but he put out a good column about Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy’s endorsement of Obama recently. Tony Dungy is an iconic figure in Indiana and almost universally admired by people of all races. Dungy isn’t exactly a liberal either, he’s an evangelical christian and has written a best-selling book about that fact. Dungy went so far as to compare some of Obama’s speeches to Martin Luther King’s. I wonder if the Obama campaign has contacted Dungy about starring in a TV ad. It would probably help Obama’s campaign in that state tremendously.
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…
Is there a nuttier member of the House than Michelle Bachmann? I’d like to see some attention to her challenger, Elwyn Tinklenberg. The main thing we need to know about him is that’s he’s sane. That should be enough to get some money going his way. This is Minnesota’s most conservative district, but nonetheless it’s a winnable race for a challenger with the resources. http://www.actblue.com/contrib…