WA-Gov, WA-08, WY-AL: Primary Predictions Thread

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

UPDATE: Polls close at 9pm ET in Wyoming, and 11pm ET in Washington. Stay tuned for updates.

It’s primary day in Washington and Wyoming! By the end of the night, we’ll be able to gather some unique data from the hotly-contested gubernatorial and 8th CD races in Washington, as candidates from all parties will square off against each other on the same ballot, and the top two finishers will square off in the general election.

In Wyoming, state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and rancher Mark Gordon will face off with several other candidates in a hotly-contested primary for the GOP nomination to succeed retiring wingnut Rep. Babs Cubin.

Now’s your chance to reach for Olympic SSP glory. Who will win these races, and by how much?

23 thoughts on “WA-Gov, WA-08, WY-AL: Primary Predictions Thread”

  1. Remember, ballots are only postmarked today.  37 of our 39 counties are all vote-by-mail.  The largest two counties, King and Pierce counties (home of Seattle and Tacoma), are mostly vote-by-mail.

    Expect the results in a week or two.  Rossi will be winning for about the next 5 days.  In about a week, it will narrow, as the King county ballots are processed.

  2. I agree with Chuck that we won’t know near-accurate results for a week or so.  Still, I’d expect Gregoire to lead Rossi, Reichert to lead Burner, and Goldmark (D) to lead Sutherland (R) in the Commissioner of Public Lands race that has stirred up so much interest here in Washington.

  3. Goldmark ahead in Public Commissioner of land. Gregoire ahead overall for the first ballot in Washington, narrowly though. Mark Gordon will take the gold in Wyoming, and probably be, as  a non-established outsider and commonman, the strongest candidate possible for Republicans.  

  4. WA-Gov: Gregoire over Rossi by one or two points. Yawn, yawn, yawn. It’ll be the same on election and every single poll until then

    WA-08: I think Burner will be up by a point or two. Tomorrow we’ll all be saying “Wow, Burner’s up over Reichart in the primary! We’ll definitely win this one.” If I’ve learned one thing this cycle its that GOP incumbents are screwed.

    WY-AL: I’m betting Wyoming Republicans go with Cynthia Lummis by a few points over Gordon and the remaining field. The established candidate will prevail and voters might recognize some continuity by electing a woman to fill Cubin’s spot.

    Sorry I can’t put any % down. I’m not familiar enough with all of the candidates.

  5. WY-AL: Lummis 43%

          Gordon 42%

          Winney 13%

          Holland 2%

    WA Gov.: Rossi 50.06%

            Gregorie 49.94%

    WA-08: Burner 49%

          Reichert 48%

          Vaughn 3%

    As much as I would like to see Gordon win, I think Lummis will narrowly win the right to lose to Trauner.

  7. I’ve been going back and forth on this, and while Lummis fron southern Wyoming (the more “Democratic” part of Wyoming), and she has higher name recognition than Gordon because of her two terms as State Treasurer, I am now thinking that it would be better for us if she won.

    Two reasons: (1) Gordon can self-fund, and has already dropped a million in the race.  With the NRCC in dire straits, they might have a harder time dumping huge money to save Lummis come October, but with Gordon in the general, they would not have to.  

    (2) Gordon might just be that fresh face that appeases voters on the fence who are thinking of voting for Trauner.  A lot of voters might identify the the odious Cubin with Lummis more than Gordon, and that would be a good thing for us.

    It is a tough call, but based on those two issues, I think Lummis would be better.  Let’s hope turnout is low — it should be — and she pulls it out.  

  8. WY-AL: Lummis 44%

         Gordon 43%

         Winney 10%

         Holland 3%

    WA Gov.: Gregorie 50.5%

            Rossi 49.5%

    WA-08: Burner 50%

         Reichert 48%

         Vaughn 2%

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