WY-AL: Primary Results Thread

Polls have now closed in Wyoming, where we’ll be following the results in the GOP primary for the state’s lone US House seat.

RESULTS: Associated Press (by county)

11:59PM (David): The AP calls it for Lummis, after she led all night. With 98% in, she has a solid eight-point lead.

11:21PM: Lummis now has a 4500 vote lead with only 13% outstanding.

11:14PM: 75% in, and Lummis is up by 3600 even. Lummis-Trauner, he we come.

11:09PM: 70% unloaded, and Lummis is up by 3100 again.

11:02PM: 66% in, and the gap has closed slightly to 2900 votes. SSP Labs tells us that Gordon would have to run 22% better in the remaining precincts to win. A very tall order.

10:58PM: 62% cleared, and the gap has closed — slightly — to 46-38, but Gordon still trails by 3400. Not looking good for the Sierra Club Republican.

10:49PM: Lummis is still up by over 3100 votes with 54% in.

10:42PM: It’s now 47-37, but Lummis has opened up a 3100 vote lead over El Gordo with 46% on the table.

10:36PM: With 35% reporting, our quickie back of the envelope analysis from scientists working at SSP Labs™ reveals that Gordon needs to run about 13% better in the two-candidate vote in order to pull out a win.

10:26PM: It’s now Lummis by 1600 with 30% in.

10:15PM: The trickle becomes a surge — with 26% in, Lummis is up by 1200 votes (45-38).

10:02PM: 12% in, and Lummis is up by nearly 1000.

9:58PM: With 9% reporting, Lummis has a 47-34 lead over Gordon. The margin: 700 votes.

9:48PM: 2% of precincts are now reporting, and Lummis (SSP’s preferred choice) has a 400-vote lead.

9:34PM ET: Lummis has the (very) early lead over Gordon: 89 to 31 votes.

38 thoughts on “WY-AL: Primary Results Thread”

  1. Hopefully we will see as a close a finish as possible so as to maximize the hurt feelings.  The campaign between Lummis and Gordon really got nasty over the last couple of weeks.  

  2. Platte, Laramie, and Natrona are closer to the southern half and lean slightly more Democratic than the north.  Even though Gordon is from Buffalo in northern Wyoming, he is going to need to do better in the more moderate areas to win.  

    Plus Big Horn County is in the north and is one of the reddest counties of all, and Lummis is leading there early.  Looks good for Lummis so far.  

  3. Interestingly, with all its precincts in, Gordon won Teton Cty 55-33.  It is the most liberal country (perhaps the only good Dem county) in the state.

    With half the vote in in each, Lummis is winning Laramie (her home county and the biggest county in WY), 48-31, and Natrona (2nd biggest), 48-37.  These are also fairly moderate, so those are interesting break-downs.  

    They also seemed close at 44-40 in Fremont.  This is probably a county Gordon needs a good showing in.  He’s up four early in Sheridan which is in the north not too far from where he’s from.  

  4. With Lummis now up 10 percent, it looks like we will have Trauner Lummis.  Couple of thoughts on the results so far…

    (1) Lummis is running strong in Laramie, Natrona, Platte, Uinta, and Fremony — mostly the southern Union Pacific line counties Trauner will have to dominate in order to win.  We are going to be killed in the north, so Trauner has to run up the score in these counties (plus Sweetwater, Carbon and Albany, which aren’t reporting yet).  That is my one big worry with Lummis: that she will win the north by the usual GOP margins, but stay competitive in the south as she is from Cheyenne.  If that happens, Trauner has zero chance.  

    (2) I love that there is a libertarian on the ballot.  Let’s hope Bob Barr has some semblance of a campaign because that will only help this guy run up his numbers.  And Wyoming is a ripe state for Barr — it was Perot’s best state in 1992.  The libertarian got four percent in 2006, so anything more would be huge this time around.  

  5. Frankly I suspect he will do worse in some of the other counties. It’s almost a shame. Gordon is a decent guy. One of the “not so bad” Republicans we were talking about. Sierra Club member and all.

    The GOP really seems to be screwed in the long-term. The base of the party seems incapable of nominating a moderate, new face. The contrast between us and them is striking. Jared Polis easily knocks off the establishment candidate. But no matter how hard some Republicans try to get back on track, the worse candidate comes out every time. Erickson in Oregon, Tinsley in NM and now maybe Lummis in WY. Its really getting out of hand. I’ll be absolutely convinced of this depending on the results of the Alaskan primary.

    Speaking of decent Republicans, where’s Kyle tonight?  

  6. In the contested 2006 Republican primary, won by Cubin over Bill Winney, a total of 81,157 votes were cast.  This time, with 46% of the vote in, it projects as approximately 70,200 votes cast in the Republican primary.  This is a pretty serious drop off, and is certainly favorable news for Trauner.

  7. With 92% in, Lummis leads by 8% and 5113 votes.  This one’s over.  Republican participation projects as about 68,000 total votes–a 16% drop from two years ago.

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