During the 2006 election cycle, you may recall that the DCCC had a modestly-sized “Frontline 10” program, identifying potentially endangered incumbents for additional support and resources. In 2006, that slate included Reps. John Barrow (GA-12), Melissa Bean (IL-08), Leonard Boswell (IA-03), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL), Brian Higgins (NY-27), Jim Matheson (UT-02), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dennis Moore (KS-03), and John Salazar (CO-03).
Unsurprisingly, with the surge of freshmen Democrats entering the House last November, this program has been expanded dramatically to 29 incumbents:
Jason Altmire (PA-04)
Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
John Barrow (GA-12)
Melissa Bean (IL-08)
Leonard Boswell (IA-03)
Christopher Carney (PA-10)
Joe Courtney (CT-02)
Joe Donnelly (IN-02)
Chet Edwards (TX-17)
Brad Ellsworth (IN-08)
Gabrielle Giffords (AZ-08)
Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
John Hall (NY-19)
Baron Hill (IN-09)
Paul Hodes (NH-02)
Steve Kagen (WI-08)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Nick Lampson (TX-22)
Tim Mahoney (FL-16)
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Harry Mitchell (AZ-05)
Christopher Murphy (CT-05)
Patrick Murphy (PA-08)
Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23)
Heath Shuler (NC-11)
Zack Space (OH-18)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
John Yarmuth (KY-03)
Barrow, Bean, Boswell, and Edwards appear to be the only holdovers from the class of 2006. Rep. Jim Marshall is the only non-freshman addition to this list.
On the face of it, there are some fairly surprising omissions from this list: fresmen Reps. David Loebsack (IA-02), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Nancy Boyda (KS-02), and Joe Sestak (PA-07). But before jumping to conclusions, I touched bases with the DCCC, and they released the following statement regarding the omission of Shea-Porter and Boyda:
Representatives Boyda and Shea-Porter ran strong, independent grassroots campaigns. Should the Republicans target them with misleading or baseless attacks we stand ready to help.
That has me breathing a lot easier. Boyda and Shea-Porter won on the strength of intensely local, intensely grassroots campaigns, and it seems clear that the DCCC will let them do their own thing in their re-election bids, but will not hesitate to intervene with independent expenditures should the Republicans attack machine land some body blows against these Representatives.
The omission of Sestak and Loebsack is probably based on the DCCC’s confidence in Democrats being able to hold districts with a Democratic lean (D+3.6 for Sestak, and D+6.9 for Loebsack). I won’t disagree with that, but Loebsack probably could use some extra scratch to more firmly entrench himself in his district.
The other omission that I’m seeing here is Rep. Julia Carson (IN-07). While she may represent a decently Democratic district (Kerry did win 58% here, after all), her 8-point victory against a badly underfunded challenger in 2006 has got to be cause for concern. Perhaps the DCCC is betting on a retirement here. Who knows.
In 2006, we saw an mini-sized Frontline Program and an huge Red To Blue list. Expect a reversal in 2008.
that the DCCC is doing this already. The Democrats seem to be very good at holding incumbents. For instance, since 1996, only seven incumbent Democrats have lost reelection:
1996: Mike Ward(KY-03)
Harold Volkmer(MO-09)
Bill Orton(UT-03)
1998: Jay Johnston(WI-08)
2000: Sam Gejdenson(CT-02)
David Minge(MN-02)
2002: A few incumbents lost because of redistricting, but I don’t count them.
2004: Baron Hill(IN-09). A few in Texas lost due to redistricting.
We need to protect these 29 and create another red-to-blue list. These should include:
AZ-01
FL-13
CT-04
IL-06
IL-10
MI-07
MI-09
NC-08
NJ-07
NY-13
NY-25
NY-29
OH-15
PA-06
PA-15
PA-18
VA-02
WA-08
That’s 18 right there that I think should be early targets.
I’m still not sure why the DCCC thinks Chet Edwards (TX-17), a survivor if there ever was one, is more vulnerable than political neophyte turned congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter.
Hodes, Arcuri, Ellsworth, Rodriguez and Klein are all in a good position to win reelection. If Bonilla, Shaw and Bass can’t beat Rodriguez, Klein and Hodes, why are considered vulnerable. Most of the five districts these districts will go Democratic in the Presidential election too.
Otherwise, this is a great list. Kudos the the D-Trip for starting up so early.
One of the reasons that potential vulnerable incumbents like Bean and Barrow survived – and many others, like Herseth and Spratt, ended up without credible challenges – is that the Frontline program for 2006 started very early and very aggressively. Hopefully it’s as successful this time.
If you look back at the 2006 expenditures, Boyda took a lot of independent expenditures from DC. She is trying to have it both ways-“Look, I don’t take DC money” while behind the scenes she is getting as much as she needs. I am not saying that she shouldn’t take DC money or the DCCC’s expenditures. I am just against rank hypocrisy.
The DCCC did not over look Carol Shea Porter. She simply would prefer to keep herself out of that pot of money if need be. Why run election costs up if you don’t need to? She has a healthy respect for Jeb Bradley or whomever runs against her and she will be able to raise money if necessary. She has good support in the state and may not need it. NH is small and shouldn’t need millions and millions of $ for campaigns. Now, if it gets nasty, as it can, who knows, but why start now? It’s a lot like an arms race–how crazy is that!
I think the thinking here is that if Julia Carson can win that district without DCCC help, she’s not even worth the effort because another Democrat could.
IMO, Boyda-D & Shea-Porter-D made the correct decision to be excluded from this list. As I reported during the campaign (here & on DKos)Boyda specifically did not want DCCC intervention, it didn’t help her in ’04.
A close friend of mine in the District and on her Campaign Staff discussed this with me and was quite clear that with the exception of the Gop Robocalls, Boyda did not need intervention by the DCCC. Needless to say the DCCC did nothing about the Robocalls, hopefully they will do so in ’08. Otherwise, I applaud how Boyda handled her upset win, and applaud the fact that any newcomer would show the independence not to be managed by the DCCC. I keep in mind that both Rahm & Steny Hoyer are DLC Democrats and Rahm consistently favored the suport & funding of Democrats beholden to the DLC such as: (IL-06,CA-06, CA-11,NY-29 & NC-08, 3 of these seats were won by the gop and 1 by a non-DLC Dem).
Both Boyda & Shea-Porter will have an advantage this time around. In both cases there will be a Gop Primary fight between the former Congressmen and those repubs who will be challenging them.Read: Probable divisive & costly Gop Primary fights.