Here’s a pair of polls in deep red GOP districts that you don’t see polled every day: Kansas’ 1st and 4th CDs, the state’s two most conservative districts.
First, KS-01: SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):
James Bordonaro (D): 13
Jerry Moran (R-inc): 77
Other: 4
(MoE: ±3.5%)
At a PVI of R+20.3, Kansas’ sprawling 4th CD is the 9th most Republican district in the nation. Moran won by a 79-20 margin in 2006, and it looks like nothing much will change this year.
And now for the Wichita-based 4th district. SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):
Donald Betts (D): 30
Todd Tiahrt (R-inc): 61
Other: 5
(MoE: ±4.2%)
The 4th CD is a tough district for any Dem to crack, but it’s obviously not the hopeless case that the 1st is. At a PVI of R+12.2, the 4th CD hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1992, when voters gave Rep. Dan Glickman his final term in office.
Donald Betts, an African-American state Senator with a charmed political career in Kansas politics so far, is giving the district a go, but it’ll be very difficult for him to close the gap, especially with only $68K left in his campaign account. Still, anytime you have a state senator running for higher office, the race is worth watching.
Betts has come behind before. I don’t think he can win but I do think he’ll be able to close to gap more then we think. Maybe make it single digits by election day.
I wish he had a easier district to run in beacuse he’s really a fantastic leader.
Let’s just concentrate (in Kansas) of getting Nancy Boyda reelected. Oh wait, isn’t she the one who’s refusing national party money? Does anyone know her opinion of blogging networks such as SSP and online fundraisers such as ActBlue?
I think this district is interesting because it has only been represented by a Democrat once in it’s entire existence (not even during the Great Depression/Dust Bowl!) and even then he got kicked out after only one term. There must be something in the water down there.
I just can’t help but notice that State Senators are doing much better than State Representatives. Since 2007, this is the trend of State Senators to State Representatives. Ahem, Democratic Nominees: Adler, Betts, Boccieri, Boswell, Cravins Jr, Hagan, Halvorson, Griffith, Peters, Pingree, Schauer, Schrader and Titus. Republican Nominees: Austria, Bee, Cassidy, Clegg, McClintock, Posey, Kenney, Lance, Rossi, Schurling and Stivers. Third Party Nominee: Saunders. Now for the St. Rep’s. Ahem, Democratic Nominees: Berkowitz, Driehaus, Driscoll, Fleming, Martin, Merkley, Kosmas and Stender. Republican Nominees: Andal, Casperson, Gard, Guthrie, Hoogendyk, Latta, Love, Paulsen, Scalisce, Strainere and Wittman. Third Party Nominee: Jackson. Now for the St. Sen’s that lost primaries. Ahem, Democrats: Bonoff, Fitz-Gearld, Strimling, Scott and Thomas. Republicans: Buehrer, Cararro, Grimes, Harvey, Ross, Smith and Ward. Now for the St. Rep’s. Ahem, Democrats: Fallon, Holland, Pentland, Thomas and Waters. Republicans: Anderson, Brinkman, Fleming, Houston, Knaperack, Mannix, Moore, Oaks, Onder and Talton.
Charlie Cook has changed his rating on OK-Sen from Solid to Likely Rep. It’s about time people take notice of that race.
http://www.cookpolitical.com/