SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/19-21, likely voters):
Nancy Boyda (D-inc): 50
Lynn Jenkins (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)
Boyda is at the critical 50% mark, and has decent favorability numbers for a frosh Dem in a deep red district (46-32). She still faces a real battle against the top-of-the ticket coattails, as McCain is beating Obama by a 51-38 margin in the district — but even that spread is not as bad as the 59-39 drubbing that Bush delivered to John Kerry here in 2004.
More interesting are the questions related to the energy crisis, including this one:
If two candidates were running for Congress, and one says that offshore drilling is the best way to solve America’s energy problems … and the other says that America needs to identify and promote alternative sources of energy … which candidate would you vote for?
So, considering all the hype surrounding the GOP’s newly-discovered “drill here, drill now” mantra, you would expect offshore drilling to be wildly popular in a conservative R+7.3 district, right? Actually, not so much: Voters here say they would vote for the candidate promoting alternative sources of energy over increased offshore drilling by a 56-34 margin.
Additionally, when asked who was most responsible for high gasoline prices, 38% blamed the oil companies while only 11% blamed environmentalists. President Bush received 10% of the blame, while Congress gobbled up 13%. You can see why the most valued attack line from the party committees this cycle is one that ties GOP candidates to “big oil”.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
If she does I’m happy with the poll, if not we’re in trouble.
Now let’s see a poll of LA-06. The GOP’s pool of potential pick-ups is dwindling down to 2 or 3 at the most.
Alabama – Cramer?
New Hampshire – Shea-Porter?
Texas – Lampson?
Florida – Mahoney?
Louisiana – Cazyoux?
Indiana – Hill?
Georgia – Marshall?
I like the chances of holding on to this seat. I’m particularly impressed with the “high gas prices” questions. I was worried that the GOP’s blaming Dems for high prices would stick. I’m glad to see it hasn’t. Also, like has been shown before in this cycle, its great to see the whole “tied to big oil” meme taking hold. Its a meme that needs to be mainstream before long. I’m not saying I hate oil companies but they have had way too much influence on U.S. politics.
I live here in the KS 2nd District, and believe this to be a fairly accurate poll. Nancy will do better as the campaign goes on. She has already sent out a 16 page newspaper insert on energy issues to all papers in the district, and is on television and radio. Nancy will not let up. Jenkins has name recognition, but she cannot campaign as well as Nancy. In the end, Nancy should end up with 55% or more of the vote.