SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/24-26, likely voters):
Raul Martinez (D): 48
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah, is a larger than life but at times somewhat controversial figure in the Miami area. He was always expected to give Diaz-Balart the stiffest challenge of his political life in this R+6.2 district, but seeing him ahead in a poll this early is fairly jolting. Another poll from Bendixen earlier this summer showed Diaz-Balart leading, but only by four points.
There’s no doubt that South Florida is changing for the better. Since 2006, Democrats have cut a 28,000 voter registration deficit in the 21st CD to a lead of only 15,000 for the GOP. And the numbers are getting bluer by the month. Similar trends are evident in FL-18 and FL-25, where progressive fighters Annette Taddeo and Joe Garcia are waging strong campaigns against Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, respectively.
Need more evidence that the Miami area is trending Dem? Just check out the Presidential numbers — despite this being a district that Bush carried by 14 points in 2004 and one that is part of the backbone of the GOP’s statewide foundation, Barack Obama and John McCain are tied at 48% each in the district. That is some seriously alarming news for the GOP, both for this election and for the long-term.
(based on zip code)
This friend is a Republican. Well, at least the mom in the family is, according to my mom. I don’t know about the dad or their children.
Got any tips for what to say to them to get them to help us?
SUSA give us a statewide Obama/McCain poll for Florida. If they’re tied here, then…wow.
This is a good sign.
Younger Cuban-Americans are shedding the republican tendencies of their parents and grandparents and breaking heavily for us. I really think we’re going to win the 21st and 25th this year.
Ms “Its the Gay’s Fault” is now down 7 per SUSA!
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
Hopefully they poll FL-08, FL-24 and FL-25 as well. I have a feeling that a poll on the 8th might look good for us considering Keller’s narrow primary win and Grayson’s blowout win. I doubt a poll would show us down more than a couple points in any of those three, maybe even leading in one or more.
are there really more self-identified D’s than R’s in the district? Things seems to be trending our way faster than I thought.
Also, Martinez has a h-u-g-e lead among voters under 30 and has independents breaking for him. Good signs.
but I have like a totally hetero thing for Raul Martinez. He’s so crass, greasy and oafish but that’s what we need right now goddammit: a flat-out liberal thug. If I was a movie star, I’d hire Raul Martinez and Jon Tester as my bodyguards (if Brian Schweitzer didn’t always have a smile on his face I’d hire him too).
this poll definitely used to many Democrats, Republicans have a lead in registration of fifteen thousand voters, so giving the Democrats a one point lead isn’t right, so I’d say this race is closer to tied perhaps leaning ever so slightly to Diaz-Balart.