SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):
Ashwin Madia (D): 41
Erik Paulsen (R): 44
Other: 10
(MoE: ±4.0%)
These numbers are pretty much the spitting image of a GQR internal poll conducted for state Sen. Terri Bonoff earlier this year. In that poll, Paulsen was leading Madia by 43-40.
While GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad held this district with ease for many years, it’s a tightly-contested district on the presidential level. In 2004, Bush edged Kerry by three points here, and in SUSA’s polling, Obama is squeaking past McCain here by 48-46.
One finding from SUSA’s crosstabs is pretty, well, unique:
Despite the fact that Obama is 47 years old and Madia is just in his 30s, it was Republican candidates who had the slight edge among younger voters in the district. Among voters 18-49, Paulsen led Madia, 45 percent to 38 percent. Madia was preferred by voters 50 and older, 44 percent to 42 percent.
The same trend held true in the presidential matchup. McCain led among the younger set of voters, 48 percent to 46 percent, while Obama was ahead among those 50 and older, 50 percent to 45 percent.
Madia has just gone up on the airwaves with a soft introductory ad, but it’s worth pointing out the incredibly frenzied fundraising pace of both Madia and GOP state Rep. Erik Paulsen. This one could be a tight battle all the way to the finish line.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
how can Obama and Madia be down among young voters? I’ve said before this one reminds me of IL-6 from 2006. A young, minority Iraq war vet running agains a state legislator in a midwest, suburban swing district. I just hope the outcome is different.
While I don’t buy Obama and Madia being behind with younger voters I also am not sure they are ahead with older voters. Of course this being Minnesota we also have a 3rd party candidate getting 10% of the vote which I think may be comming mainly from Madia (The change vote).
FWIW the poll is good news for Obama, Bush beat Kerry by 3 points in the 3rd in 2004.
this is a tossup, that’s for sure. But Madia has plenty of room for improvement among young voters and is running a very impressive campaign. It’s a tossup but I think we can pull it out.
Why the hell couldn’t we have nominated Bonoff? She’d probably have a big lead by now. Oh that’s right, the party insiders wanted ideological purity over electability.
is trending more REpublican among younger voters which is what people from the state have told me.
From what I’ve read the only 3rd party candidate is David Dillon who has raised a whopping $48,000 the entire cycle. Is it just me or does it seem like 10% for the 3rd party candidate sounds VERY high?
Madia, who has run a tremendous campaign, is the closest thing to a fit for our district. He’s a fiscal conservative (balance the budget by going line by line, and dime by dime) and a social moderate! He engages the voters at every opportunity and has clear, concise ideas and actually understands the many problems facing our country, state, and district. He intends to represent All of us, not just those that think like him….we are lucky to have him, and soon the rest of the country will be jealous of our representation….he is the “real deal”!