NC-08: Hayes Leads Kissell by 5 in New Poll

Public Policy Polling (8/25-27, likely voters, 7/2-5 in parens):

Larry Kissell (D): 39 (36)

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 44 (43)

Thomas Hill (L): 4 (7)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Hayes still maintains the edge, on account of his strength among Democrats (19% to Kissell’s 69%), Republicans (83-8) and Independents (43-27). But he’s still well under 50%, and there are ominous signs up the ballot in this R+3 district: Kay Hagan is leading Dole by 45-41 in the state’s U.S. Senate race, and Obama and McCain’t are tied at 43% each.

This one is gonna be a slugfest.

23 thoughts on “NC-08: Hayes Leads Kissell by 5 in New Poll”

  1. Kissell is closing in on Hayes, up 3 points while Hayes gains 1 point, Kissell slashes gap almost by half.

    About that large Undecided vote in the Presidential, fully 14% Undecided: There’s nothing to be Undecided about. Except that Obama is black. He started this race black. He is still black. He will be black on November 4. Those voters are trying to decide if they can get over their lifelong prejudices and vote for the better man for the job. I think they can. The fact that they are Undecided now, and not fully committed to McSame, is very positive.

    Obama will carry the state in November, Hagan will become the new Senator, and Larry Kissell will be elected to the House.

  3. The reason Hayes must be drawing fairly well amongst Dems must be name identification or am I wrong?  Larry has been doing everything he can from what I can tell.  I guess if some Dems want to believe that Robin Hayes isn’t selling them out that’s their choice.  It really is sad though because there aren’t many votes like the CAFTA votes where a member of Congress knows the result will directly harm their constituents and gets away with it.  

  4. Enthusiasm is also going to play a big part in this.  In 2006 the Kissell campaign almost pulled it out by having a bigger and better ground game.

    This year, with Obama on the ticket, with more resources, and with more staff they are going to continue to have a big edge on “game day”, while Hayes is simply trying to buy another election through tv advertising.

    If Larry is within the MOE on November 3rd his team will put him in office on election day.  

  5. Are there such people in NC-08?  e.g. any universities, bastions of young people, people who don’t have land lines for whatever reason, or anything like that?

  6. I live in western Pennsylvania and I can tell you that some people openly admit that they will NOT vote for Obama because he is black.  They say he will only work for blacks or other lame excuses.  Others really think he is a secret Muslim.  Since this whole area is and has always been lily white, these ideas are a puzzle.  Governor Rendell said Obama’s race will probably cost him 3-5 percentage points but that on the whole, people who won’t vote for him because he is black were not going to vote for a Democrat anyway.  Rendell is a really smart politician and I am confident that he will see to it that Obama wins Penssylvania even if he loses the central areas.

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