Alright, another installment in our occasional trivia series. In 1994, no GOP incumbents lost in either the House or the Senate, much like the Dem performance in 2006. Needless to say, years like that are unusual.
So, all you election wizards, tell us: In the intervening years (ie, 1996-2004), how many incumbent Senators and Representatives lost their re-election bids, in both parties? This range includes two rounds of redistricting (nationwide in 2002 and Texas in 2004), but go ahead and include those names in your lists as well.
If you can tell us a little bit about why the incumbents lost, so more the better!
2004:
SD-Sen: Tom Daschle (D)
IL-08: Phil Crane (R): I believe there was a scandal there.
KY-09: Baron Hill (D): His vote against the gay marriage amendment had a lot to do with it.
TX-01: Max Sandlin (D): Redistricting and the Bush tide
TX-02: Nick Lampson (D): Ditto
TX-19: Charles Stenholm (D): Ditto
TX-32: Martin Frost (D): Ditto
2002
AR-Sen: Tim Hutchison (R): Marrital problems alienated his conservative base.
GA-Sen: Max Cleland (D): Swept up in the Republican tied.
MO-Sen: Jean Carnahan (D): Ditto
NH-Sen: Bob Smith (R): Lost in primary. Voters thought the other guy (John Sununu) would have a better chance.
2000
MI-Sen: Spencer Abraham (R)
MO-Sen: John Ashcroft (R)
DE-Sen: Roth (R) (Don’t know first name)
WA-Sen: Slade Gorton (R)
VA-Sen: (D) (name escapes me right now)
1998
IL-Sen: Carol Moseley-Braun (D): “Dancing with dictators” fiasco
NC-Sen: Lauch Faircloth (R)
NY-Sen: Alfonse D’Amoto (R)
There was no scandal involving Phil Crane in Melissa Bean’s upset win in 2004.
Crane had simply lost touch with his district and Bean ran a near flawless challenger campaign.
In 2000, Tim Bishop also beat Felix Grucci in New York’s first district. That was the old Mike Forbes seat. A librarian named Regina Seltzer beat Forbes in the Democratic primary (after he switched parties) in 1998 and Felix Grucci (of Grucci fireworks fame) beat Seltzer to become Congressman in 98.
In 2000, Bishop pulled off a big upset and beat Grucci.
In fact, these were the only two House Democratic challengers (3, if you count the redistricted Georgia seat where the R surprisingly won in 02 but lost in 04) in the past two election cycles (pre-06 of course) to beat Republican incumbents without the help of redistricting.
2004:
SD Senate: Daschle(D) loses to Thune(R)
1 incumbent lost(1 Dem)
IN-09: Hill(D) loses to Sodrel(R)
GA-12: Burns(R) loses to Barrow(D)
IL-08: Crane(R) loses to Bean(D)
Redistricting induced:
TX-02: Lampson(D) loses to Poe(R)
TX-01: Sandlin(D) loses to Gohmert(R)
TX-32: Frost(D) loses to Sessions(R)
6 incumbents lost(4 Dem, 2 GOP)
2002:
AR-SEN: Hutchinson(R) loses to Pryor(D)
MO-SEN: Carnahan(D) loses to Talent(R)
GA-SEN: Cleland(D) loses to Chambliss(R)
3incumbents lost(1 R, 2D)
NY-01: Grucci(R) loses to Bishop(D)
Redistricting induced:
FL-05: Thurman(D) loses to Brown-Waite(R)
IL-19: Phelps(D) loses to Shimkus(R)
MN-02: Luther(D) loses to Kline(R)
MD-08: Morella(R) loses to VanHollen(D)
CT-05: Mahoney(D) loses to Johnson(D)
MS-03: Shows(D) loses to Pickering(R)
PA-17: Gekas(R) loses to Holden(D)
8 incumbents lost(5 D, 3R)
2000:
DE-SEN: Roth(R) loses to Carper(D)
MN-SEN: Grams(R) loses to Dayton(D)
MI-SEN: Abraham(R) loses to Stabenow(D)
VA-SEN: Robb(D) loses to Allen(R)
MO-SEN: Ashcroft(R) loses to Carnahan(D)
WA-SEN: Gorton(R) loses to Cantwell(D)
6 incumbents lost(5R, 1D)
AR-04: Dickey(R) loses to Ross(D)
CA-29: Rogan(R) loses to Schiff(D)
CA-36: Kuyendall(R) loses to Harman(D)
CA-53?: Bilbray(R) loses to Davis(D)
CT-02: Gejdenson(D) loses to Simmons(R)
MN-02: Minge(D) loses to Kennedy(R)
6 incumbents lost(4R, 2D)
1998:
NY-SEN: D’Amato(R) loses to Schumer(D)
NC-SEN: Faircloth(R) loses to Edwards(D)
IL-SEN: Braun(D) loses to Fitzgerald(R)
3 incumbents lost(2R, 1D)
KS-03: Snowbarger(R) loses to Moore(D)
PA-13: Fox(R) loses to Hoeffel(D)
NJ-12: Pappas(R) loses to Holt(D)
WA-01: White(R) loses to Inslee(D)
WI-08: Johnston(D) loses to Green(R)
NM-03: Redmond(R) loses to Udall(D)
6incumbents lost(5R, 1D)
1996:
SD-SEN: Pressler(R) loses to Johnson(D)
1 incumbent lost(1R)
CA-23: Seastrand(R) loses to Capps(D)
CA-10: Baker(R) loses to Tauscher(D)
CT-05: Franks(R) loses to Mahoney(D)
IL-05: Flannery(R) loses to Blagojevich(D)
KY-03: Ward(D) loses to Northup(R)
MA-03: Blute(R) loses to McGovern(D)
MA-06: Torkildson(R) loses to Tierney(D)
MI-08: Chrysler(R) loses to Stabanow(D)
MO-09: Volckmer(D) loses to Hulshof(R)
NJ-08: Martini(R) loses to Pascrell(D)
NY-04: Frisa(R) loses to McCarthy(D)
NC-02: Funderburk(R) loses to Etheridge(D)
NC-04: Heiniman(R) loses to Price(D)
OH-06: Creamans(R) loses to Strickland(D)
OH-10: Hoke(R) loses to Kucinich(D)
OR-05: Bunn(R) loses to Hooley(D)
TX-09: Stockman(R) loses to Lampson(D)
WA-09: Tate(R) loses to White(D)
ME-01: Longley(R) loses to Allen(D)
18 incumbents lost(17R, 2D)
Overall:
Senate: 14 incumbents lost(5D, 9R)
House: 44 incumbents lost(30R, 14D)
1996- Senate- Pressler(R-SD)lost to Tim Johnson
House- Baker(R-CA-10)lost to Ellen Tauscher
Streasand(R-CA-22)lost to Walter Capps
Dornan(R-CA-46)lost to Loretta Sanchez
Franks(R-CT-5)lost to James Maloney
Flanagan(R-IL-5)lost to Rod Blagojevich
Ward(D-KY-3)lost to Anne Northup
Longley(R-ME-1)lost to Tom Allen
Blute(R-MA-3) lost to James McGovern
Torkildesen(R-MA-6)lost to John Tierney
Chrysler(R-MI-8)lost to Debbie Stabenow
Volkmer(D-MO-9)lost to Kenny Hulshof
Martini(R-NJ-8)lost to Bill Pascrell
Frisa(R-NY-4)lost to Carolyn McCarthy
Funderbunk(R-NC-2)lost to Bobby Etheridge
Heineman(R-NC-4)lost to David Price
Cremean(R-OH-6)lost to Ted Strickland
Hoke(R-OH-10)lost to Dennis Kucinich
Bunn(R-OR-5)lost to Darlene Hooley
Stockman(R-TX-9)lost to Nick Lampson
Randy Tate(R-WA-9)lost to Adam Smith
1998- Senate- Mosely Braun(D-IL)lost to Peter Fitzgerald
Al D’Amato(R-NY)lost to Chuck Schumer
Lauch Faircloth(R-NC)lost to John Edwards
House- Snowbarger(R-KS-3)lost to Dennis Moore
Pappas(R-NJ-12)lost to Rush Holt
Fox-(R-PA-13)lost to Joe Hoefell
White(R-WA-1)lost to Jay Inslee
Johnson(D-WI-8)lost to Mark Green
2000- Senate- Roth(R-DE)lost to Tom Carper
Abraham(R-MI)lost to Debbie Stabenow
Grams(R-MN)lost to Mark Dayton
Aschcroft(R-MO)lost to Carnahan
Robb(D-VA)lost to George Allen
Gorton(R-WA)lost to Maria Cantwell
House- Dickey(R-AR-4)lost to Mike Ross
Rogan(R-CA-27)lost to Adam Schiff
Kuykendell(R-CA-36)lost to Jane Harman
Bilbray(R-CA-49)lost to Susan Davis
Gedjenson(D-CT-2)lost to Rob Simmons
Minge(D-MN-2)lost to Mark Kennedy
2002- Senate- Hutchinson(R-AR)lost to Mark Pryor
Cleland(D-GA)lost to Saxby Chambliss
Carnahan(D-MO)lost to Jim Talent
House- Maloney(D-CT-5)lost to Nancy Johnson(MvM)
Thurman(D-FL-5)lost to Ginny Brown-Waite
Phelps(D-IL-19)lost to John Shimkus(MvM)
Morella(R-MD-8)lost to Chris VanHollen
Luther(D-MN-2)lost to John Kline
Shows(D-MS-4)lost to Chip Pickering(MvM)
Grucci(R-NY-1)lost to Tim Bishop
Gekas(R-PA-17)lost to Tim Holden(MvM)
2004- Senate- Daschle(D-SD)lost to John Thune
House- Burns(R-GA-12)lost to John Barrow
Crane(R-IL-8)lost to Mellisa Bean
Hill(D-IN-9)lost to Mike Sodrel
Sandlin(D-TX-1)lost to Louie Gohmert
Lampson(D-TX-2)lost to Ted Poe
Stenholm(D-TX-19)lost to Randy Neugebaur(MvM)
Frost(D-TX-32)lost to Pete Session(MvM)
I intend to offer background on most of the races listed by Sean above, so this will be the first of several posts.
As DavidNYC noted, no Republican congressional incumbent lost in 1994. This result was unanticipated since two years earlier there had been a number of anamolous results mainly because scandals such as the fact that several Members had bounced hundreds of checks in the House Bank. Three of the 1996 Republican losers, [Peter Blute (MA3), Peter Torkildsen (MA6) and Martin Hoke (OH10) were Members who had been elected in traditionallly Democratic districts largely because of the ethical transgressions of their predecessors, Joe Early, Nicholas Mavroules and Mary Rose Oakar, respectively. Without an overwhelming anti-Democratic tide such as that of 1994, these three had little chance of remaining in office, regardless of their voting records. While the two Peters, as they were known, were relatively moderate Republicans, Hoke was far more conservative than his Cuyahoga County district. After their initial victories, Jim McGovern, John Tierney and Dennis Kucinich have never been seriously challenged for reelection.
The usual course of affairs when a candidate wins a race in a safe seat of the other party because of an event such as an indictment is that the candidate is sent packing at the first opportunity. This is what happened in IL5, Northwestern Chicago. 17-term incumbent Dan Rostenkowski lost to Michael Flanagan in 1994 after being indicted. Two years later, Flanagan was easily defeated by Rod Blagojevich, and Blagojevich and his successor, Rahm Emanuel, have run up huge majorities in this district since then.
In no area was the 1994 earthquake more strongly felt than in Washington State. On election eve, Democrats held 8 of the 9 seats. When all the votes were counted, they were reduced to 2. Republicans defeated 5 incumbents and took an open Democratic district. In 1996, when Adam Smith defeated Randy Tate in the 9th district, Democrats began the long climb back. This is the seat created when Washington gained a district in 1990 after the 1990 census. It is roughly the area between Tacoma and Seattle. Democratic freshman Mike Kreidler never really connected with the district. While the constituents may have been dissatisfied with Kreidler, I doubt that they realized what they were getting when they elected Tate, a true believer in the Gingrich Revolution. I use the phrase “true believer” in its literal sense. After his defeat by Smith, Tate worked for the Christian Coalition.
Robert Roe was one of those legendary Congressmen who brought home prodigious amounts of bacon to his constituents. By the time of his retirement in 1992, he was Chairman of the Public Works and Transportation Committee. Roe’s replacement was a millionaire named Herb Klein, a man with whom it was difficult for blue-collar constituents to identify. Klein lost an extremely close race in 1994 to Bill Martini, in which Martini barely got 50%. In his reelection bid, Martini lost to Bill Pascrall. Although Martini was one of the more moderate Republicans in the House, he still toed the party line far more than was wise for someone from a northern district which voted for Clinton twice and for Gore in 2000.
No loser was more unexpected in 1994 than Jack Brooks (TX9), who had been in Congress for four decades and was Chairman of the Judiciary Committee. His defeat can be attributed to the National Rifle Association who was angry that the 1994 Crime bill had a ban on assault weapons. Many people got their first glimpse of what an odious person Chris Shays is fromthe 2006 election. However, I have despised him since 1994, when he and his moderate Republican allies forced multiple roll call votes on the crime legislation on the eve of the election becauseof a so-called concern about trivialties such as midnight basketball. All of these votes were counted on the NRA scorecard. The winner agsint Brooks was a perennial candidate named Steve Stockman, who was a gun nut and militia enthusiast. I believe he was the wackiest of the all the Republicans elected that year. Helen Chenoweth, Fred Heineman, Enid Greene Waldholz or Frank Cremeans do not even come close. What is scary is the fact that he only lost his reelection to Nick Lampson by 53-47.
to be continued
david,
i see your point on md-8, but that was a blue seat that had been favorable to morella for quite a few years. if i’m not mistaken, it got even more blue post redistricting and included more of van hollen’s leg district.
morella would likely have held that seat were it not for redistricting….of course, she’d have lost it in 06 anyway 🙂
I didn’t see anyone mention Frank Mascara (D-PA), who lost to John Murtha in the primary after they were gerrymandered into the same district.
Gun control can sometimes work the other way. A decade ago on Long Island, many residents were traumatized when a gunman opened fire in a crowded commuter train. That incident occurred in the district of Dan Frisa (NY4). Frisa was a conservative Republican freshman who had attained office by defeating the more moderate incumbent (David Levy) in the Republican primary. Carolyn McCarthy’s husband died in the attack and her son was severely wounded. When Frisa voted against the assault weapons ban, she was so angry that she decided to run against Frisa. Although she was previously a registered Republican, she ran as a Democrat and won. One reason for her success is that Frisa had never done anything to patch up relations with Levy supporters.
Another example of the Republican’s becoming more and more conservative with the district not following the lead can be seen in Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo (CA23). This area used to represented by a moderate Republican named Robert Lagomarsino. In 1992, Lagomarsino was defeated in the primary by the more conservative Michael Huffington (Arianna’s ex-husband). He dramatically outspent the incumbent. After one term, he decided to run for Senate and the seat was won by Andrea Seastrand, who was even more right wing. Despite the fact that she did not win 50% of the vote, she was a dependable far right wing vote, making no attempt to broaden her appeal. Finally, the district had had enough. Her opponent, Walter Capps, was also her opponent two years later and he won the rematch.
Sometimes a representative loses because of demographic changes in his district. For example, Orange County, CA is becoming more Hispanic which is why Loretta Sanchez was able to defeat B-1 Bob Dornan in 1996 (CA47). Sometimes attitudes in a district change. Close-in suburbs are becoming increasingly blue throughout the country, so that moderate Republicanism does not have the appeal it once had. Sometimes, a Member of Congress suffers because of a vote that he/she has cast, whether as a “profile in courage” or a capitulation to the White House. However, sometime the loss is a result of doing or saying something very stupid. Cases in point, the two NC Republican freshmen who lost in 1996.
David Funderburk (NC2) was a Jesse Helms disciple. His stupidity involved an automobile accident in which he was involved. Several witnesses alleged that the Congressman and wife exchanged seats before the police arrived on the scene. The resulting negative publicity probably cost Funderburk the election. Fred Heineman (NC4) had defeated David Price by just over a thousand votes in 1994. Heineman made headlines with his assertion that his $180,000 income (Congressional salary plus police chief pension) only made him a member of the lower-middle class. He defined people between $300,000 and $750,000 a year as middle class, and people making above that level as upper middle class. By his definition, only approximately 1% of the population could be classified as middle-class. Research Triangle voters were not amused and Price comfortably won the rematch.
There was also a rematch in OH6 between Frank Cremeans and Ted Strickland. Cremeans won in 1994 by charging that Strickland would raise taxes. Strickland won in 1996 by convincing voters that Cremeans would destroy Medicare. Strickland’s victory was helped by the fact that Cremeans was a real nut case. He famously opined that the decline and fall of the Greek and Roman civilizations could be attributed to homosexuality and AIDS.
Some losers in 1996 were people whose 1994 victory could be considered a fluke. In Maine, when the two representatives went head to head in the Senate race to succeed George Mitchell, the primary in ME1 to replace Tom Andrews attracted a large number of individuals, and winner attained only a third of the vote. The Republican in the race, Jim Longley, had one huge asset: having the same name as his famous father. Like Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 2006 Senate race, Longley’s father had been a popular former governor. In the year of the Republican tsunami that was enough. Although he was a relative moderate, Longley’s votes for several planks of the “Contract With America” provided Tom Allen with sufficient ammunition to take him out.
In the Oregon 5th, Jim Bunn’s good fortune in 1994 was the late withdrawal of incumbent Mike Kopetski after an arrest for drunk driving. Kopetski in 1992 had taken 74% of the vote; in 1994, Bunn won only 50%. Like Longley, Bunn was moderate. However, Bunn’s loss to Darlene Hooley was a result not only of his voting record, but also the impact of a scandal. It is not a good idea when you are running in a marginal district against a well-funded woman candidate to divorce your wife and marry a woman on your staff to whom you have been paying a salary far in excess of what would be expected for someone of her qualifications and experience.
Dick Chrysler was elected in the Michigan 8th which then encompassed Lansing and areas to the east as far as Ann Arbor. This was a swing district which Bob Carr had held off and on since Watergate. He was defeated in the Reagan landslide and regained the seat two years later. I doubt that he could have won it in 1996; it was time for a new face in the district. The 1996 candidate was Debbie Stabenow, who had impressed many with her unsuccessful campaign for lieutenant in 1994. She ran a masterful campaign tying Chrysler to Gingrich. Her margin of victory was 10%. She established herself as one of the new stars of the party, which led to the Senate victory in 2000.
It is easiest to defeat a freshman, before the incumbent develops deep roots in the district or power through seniority. However, sometimes takes a couple of elections to find the right candidate. When John Rowland left CT5 to run for governor, he was replaced by Gary Franks, the first African American Congressman in almost six decades. Franks was far more conservative than Rowland. In 1992, he won reelection in a three-way race. In 1994, the left was united, but the timing was wrong. James Maloney received 46%. In the 1996 rematch, Maloney was finally able to prevail. Besides getting rid of a right-winger, there the added incentive of trying to end Republican control of the House.
There is a lot of left blogosphere anger toward Ellen Tauscher, but it should not be forgotten that in 1996 she defeated a real wingnut named Bill Baker in CA10. She won a very close race (49%-47%) by spending a lot of her own money. The district today was altered dramatically after the last census, so centrist like Tauscher is no longer a good fit.
All of the losses discussed until now have been Republicans. However, in 1996 two of the losers were Democrats: Mike Ward from Louisville (KY3) and Harold Volkmer (MO9) whose district comprised most of the northeast quarter of the state. Neither should have been a surprise. Ward was a freshman whose margin of victory was less than 500 votes, since a third-party candidate running on an anti-abortion platform received mored than 10% of the vote. Romano Mazzoli, who had held the district for 20 years was firmly opposed to abortion. Ward actually increased his percentage of the total vote to just under 50%, but lost by about 1300 votes. Volkmer was a 10-term incumbent, but in the 1990 redistricting, some unfamiliar territory was added to his district. In neither 1992 nor 1994, did he exceed 50% of the vote. In 1996, he once again faced Kenny Hulshof. Although Volkmer actually won that portion he had always represented, overall he lost, getting 47% to Hulshof’s 49%.
In the 1996 House elections, Democrats defeated 18 Republicans and lost 2 seats. That would have been enough to retake the House, if we had retained our open seats. Unfortunately, we lost 8 of them, many in the South. Until 2006, our dismal record in open seat elections was the main reason that Democrats stayed in the minority. The height of futility occurred in 2000. In that year, there were 26 Republican retirements. We were only able to pick up 5 of those seats.
Not 2000. Which reminds me, Connie Morella (MD-08) also lost in 2002.
trying to impeach Bubba over the Lewinsky matter.
1)Mike Pappas(R-NJ-12)- A Conservative Republican who narrowly won a seat held by Dick Zimmer- The District was a moderate Republican district. Pappas sang the Twinkle Twinkle Kenneth Starr song which led to his defeat in 1998 to Rush Holt.
2)Bill Redmond(R-NM-3)- narrowly won a special election to replace Bill Richardson who was appointed to the UN. Redmonds victory was due to a strong showing of the Green party candidate. The Democrats nominated in 1998- Tom Udall who defeated Redmond by a double digit margin.
3)Jon Fox(R-PA13)- Unseated Marjorie Margolis Mezenky during the 1994 Revolution- won reelection in 1996 by less than 100 votes. Lost in a rematch to Joe Hoefell.
4)Rick White(R-WA-1)- Defeated Maria Cantwell in 1994 during the GOP revolution- lost his seat in 1998 to Former Rep Jay Inslee who also lost his seat during the 1994 Revolution.
should give Steve Kagen(WI-8)some worries. WI-8 is a historically a Republican leaning district.
1)Jay Dickey(R-AR-4)- elected in 1992- The Democratic incumbent Beryl Anthony lost in a primary to the scandal plagued Bill McCuen- who eventually went to prison. Dickey defeated McCuen by a 52-48 percent margin- 1994 was a pro GOP year in 1996 and 1998- Democrats nominated a sacrificial lamb candidate. In 2000- Democrats field a formidable candidate to unseat Dickey- Mike Ross- and add to the fact this was Bubba’s home district.
2)James Rogan(CA-27)- Role during the Clinton impeachment trial- District was trending Democratic.
3)Brian Bilbrary(CA-49)-was elected in 1994 to a Democratic leaning San Diego based district. After Bilbrary loss in 2000- Gerrymandering made Davis and Filners district safe Democratic. Cunningham,Issa,and Hunters district Republican.
Bilbray was able to win Cunningham’s seat
4)Steve Kuykendell(CA-36) lost to Jane Harman- who previously gave up the Suburban LA Seat to run for Governor.
or Non CHC member is Nancy Pelosi-(CA-8)+70.5 Kerry. right behind
1)Rangel(NY-15)+80.4 Kerry
2)Serrano(NY-16)+79.2 Kerry
3)Fattah(PA-2)+74.9 Kerry
4)Lee(CA-9)+73.3 Kerry
5)Towns(NY-10)+73.2 Kerry
6)Clarke(NY-11)+73.1 Kerry
The most Republican District is UT-3