Month 3 of Tracking the Top 50 House Pick up Chances

With the Presidential race gearing up at a its fastest pace ever, it is extremely important to remember that 2008 is still a chance to strength our majority in the House and as importantly, punish the Republicans who stood with Bush every step of the way until it was politically inconvenient. So this is Month Three.

Top 50

1. MI 7
  Republican Tim Walberg
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reason for Weakness
  Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

Change: No Change
Tim Walberg continues to vote like a right-winger on everything and his district just isn’t built for that rightwing a record.  Joe Schwarz remains the wild card.

2. PA 15
  Republican Charlie Dent
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won.  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

Change: No Change
Charlie Dent’s vote for the troop surge solidified his vulnerability in my mind.  There also appear to many possible Democratic Challengers. Finding a challenger quickly will be important

3. 
NV 3 
  Republican Jon Porter
  06 Winning Percentage 48%
  04 Bush Percentage 50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going elsewhere. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

Change Up
Reason: Keller move on Iraq will make him less vulnerable; also Nevada’s first Democratic Caucus should give Democrats a great chance to get organized to beat Porter.  Democratic Nominee for Gov in 06 Diana Titus is one potential challenger.

4. WA 8
  Republican Dave Reichert 
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage 48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
Change Up
Reason. His Iraq vote is particularly damaging in this district.  Washington State simply despises the War.

5.  FL 8
  Republican Ric Keller
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

Change Down
Reason: His Iraq flip flop will probably benefit him slightly. More importantly he seems to be engaging hard to keep his seat and that makes you inherently

6.
CA 4
  Republican John Doolittle
  06 Winning Percentage 49%
  04 Bush Percentage 61%
  Reasons for Weakness
  A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.
Change Up
Reason: Charlie Brown is in, corruption remains; this race will be a barn burner to the finish.

7. NJ 7

  Republican Mike Ferguson
  06 Winning Percentage  49%
  04 Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s positions on social issues are also out of step for the district.
Change Up
Reason Iraq will focus more importantly in this district as Ferguson voted to defend the Surge.

8.
6. AZ 1
  Republican Rick Renzi
  06 Winning Percentage 51%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.
  Change Down
Reason: The other districts all seem to have at least possible challengers AZ 1 lacks that currently and Iraq will not cause as much of an issue here. Renzi corruption still makes him vulnerable but he is more likely to escape.

9.
NC 8
  Republican Robin Hayes
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
Change None
Reason: The race is the same, everyone else has a district fit issue  while this a straight even issue.

10.
MI 9
  Republican Joe Knollenberg
  06 Winning Percentage 52%
  04 Bush Percentage 51%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.
Change Up
Reason. Joe Knollenberg is thought of as possibly retiring either way, he is a relic, in a Presidential, change has a real chance to sweep out Knollenberg. DCCC also seems to be very interested.

11.  CO 4
  Republican Marilyn Musgrave
  06 Winning Percentage 46%
  04 Bush Percentage 58%
  Reasons for Weakness
  46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
Change Down
Reason:  Colorado seems to have just too much going on,  No candidates are emerging and this district is just going to be very tough. Musgrave is still outside the mainstream, though being in the minority actually gives her a smaller chance to say the kind of things that got her in trouble in the first palce.

12.  PA 18
  Republican Tim Murphy
  06 Winning Percentage 58%
  04  Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness 
  Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
Change Up
Reason:  Hastert appears to be re-emerging as less talk of retirement appears edging this district up.

13. OH 16
  Republican Ralph Regula
  06 Winning Percentage 59%
  04 Bush Percentage  54%
  Reasons for Weakness
  When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
Change Up
Reason: Retirement seems like a real possibility and a challenger has already appeared. Ohio seems to be trending Blue also.

14.  IL 6
  Republican Peter Roskam
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04 Bush Percentage  53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.
Change  Up
Reason: Hastert moving down combined with Roskam deep conservative record makes this race the best in Illinois

15.  IL 14
  Republican Dennis Hastert
  06 Winning Percentage 60%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
  Reasons for Weakness
  How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great chance.
Change: Down
Reason: Hastert looks more and more likely to run and this seat could drop far and fast if he runs for re-election

16.
PA 6
  Republican Jim Gelach
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.
Change None
Reason Gerlach is vulnerable for the very same reasons he always has been and that stays the same this month.

17.  NM 1
  Republican Heather Wilson
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
Change Up
Reason: She took the wrong position on Iraq with the resolution and that is going to be  a problem.

18.
Republican Barbara Cubin
  06 Winning Percentage  48%
  04 Bush Percentage  69%
  Reasons for Weakness
  No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 
Change  Up
Walsh is dropping like a stone and this district benefits
19.
OH 15
  Republican Deborah Pyrce
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%
  Reasons for Weakness
  If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but completely winnable.
Change Up
Reason:  Moves up as a Result of Walsh

20.
CT 4
  Republican Chris Shays
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04  Bush Percentage 46%
  Reasons for Weakness
  In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
Change  Up
Reason: His Iraq vote was bad for him, he moves up mostly because of Walsh but has a chance to move up more because of his Iraq vote.

21. .NY 13
  Republican Vito Fosella 
  06 Winning Percentage 57%
  04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
This race moved into the rankings from spot 26 because the DCCC targeted it for ethics violations. New York’s Democratic Lean in the last election makes it seem entirely possible that this race will finally get hot. 
Change up
  The other moved down and Vito’s corruption move him up also.

22. NY 25
  Republican Jim Walsh
  06 Winning Percentage  51%
  04 Bush Percentage  48%
  Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
Change Down
Reason: Flipping on Iraq clearly helps him in his district and make him slightly less vulnerable.

23.
.  IL 10
  Republican Mark Kirk
  06 Winning Percentage  53%
  04  Bush Percentage 47%
  Reasons for Weakness
  The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

Change Down
Reason: Mark Kirk leaving of the administration on Iraq is very bad for them but it is very good for his re-election prospects.

24. PA 3
  Republican Phil English
  06 Winning Percentage 54%
  04  Bush Percentage 53%
  Reasons for Weakness
  This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
Change Down
Reason: Though he didn’t move, he seems less vulnerable because of his Iraq switch.

25.
GA 10
Republican Open
04 Bush Percentage 65%
Reason
Open seats are always likely to flip more than others, the picture on this seat will get more clear soon. But it needs to be included in the top 25 for now. .

Entered Top  25
GA 10

Left Top 25
MI 11

26.
Republican Scott Garrett
  06 Winning Percentage  55%
  04  Bush Percentage  57%

27. Republican Tom Davis
  06 Winning Percentage 55% 
  04  Bush Percentage 50%

28. OH 1
  Republican Steve Chabot
  06 Winning Percentage 53%
  04 Bush Percentage  51%

29.  IA 4
  Republican Tom Latham
  06 Winning Percentage  57%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
  Republican Peter King
  06 Winning Percentage  56%
  04  Bush Percentage 53

31. IL 11
  Republican Jerry Weller
  06 Winning Percentage 55%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

32. .  NY 29
  Republican Randy Kuhl
  06 Winning Percentage  52%
  04  Bush Percentage 56%

33. OH 2
  Republican Jean Schmidt
  06 Winning Percentage 51% 
  04  Bush Percentage 64%

34.
FL 1O
  Republican Bill Young
  06 Winning Percentage  66% 
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

35.  DE AL
  Republican Mike Castle
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  46%

36. CA 26
  Republican David Drier
  06 Winning Percentage 57% 
  04  Bush Percentage  55%

37. OH 3
  Republican Mike Turner
  06 Winning Percentage 59% 
  04  Bush Percentage  54%

38. FL 24
  Republican Tom Feeney
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

39.  NJ 3
  Republican Jim Saxton
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
  Republican Michelle Bachmann
  06 Winning Percentage  50%
  04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. VA 2
Republican Thelma Drake
06  Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Winning Percentage  58%

42.  OH 12
  Republican Pat Tiberi
  06 Winning Percentage 58% 
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

43. NJ 2
  Republican Frank LoBiondo
  06 Winning Percentage  62%
  04  Bush Percentage  50%

44. 
NY 23
  Republican John McHugh
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 51%

45. OH 14
  Republican Steve LaTourette
  06 Winning Percentage  58%
  04  Bush Percentage  53%

46. CO 6
Republican Tom Tancredo
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 60%

Reason Likely to be open

  47. WI 1
  Republican Paul Ryan
  06 Winning Percentage  63%
  04  Bush Percentage 54%

48. ID 1
  Republican Bill Salli
  06 Winning Percentage 50%
  04 Bush Percentage 69%

49 . 
MN 3
  Republican Jim Ramstad 
  06 Winning Percentage  65%
  04  Bush Percentage  51%

50.  MI 4
  Republican Dave Camp
  06 Winning Percentage  60%
  04 Bush Percentage  55%

No changes in Top 50