Benenson Strategy Group for Charlie Brown (8/21-24, likely voters, 5/14-15 in parens):
Charlie Brown (D): 43 (42)
Tom McClintock (R): 41 (40)
Undecided: 15 (18)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Some nice, steady numbers for Charlie here. McClintock still outpaces Brown in terms of name recognition (76% to 67%), but the Conservative Icon begins the campaign with slightly higher negatives (32% to Brown’s 26%), and both post similar favorable ratings in the low 40s.
Brown will be fighting against a tough GOP headwind in this R+11 district as he tries to sway those undecideds, but he’s starting off in good shape.
(Thanks to Andy D. for spotting this one.)
This district is just so red, and McClintock is too well-known. Still, this is a nice result.
I have a question I was thinking about. Does anyone else think that if a candidate releases a favorable internal poll, and the other side does not release his/her own internal finding, it indicates that the polling is indeed bad for the latter candidate? A lot of times we see a candidate immediately counter, such as Jay Love in AL-02 after Bobby Bright got that great Anzalone poll.
I don’t know if this should be an accepted rule, but I do believe that a candidate’s failure to counter with his own polling can be telling in a lot of circumstances.
the DCCC reserved 2 million for this race and CA-11. McNerney’s opponent has pretty much shown he’s a total flop. If all of that time goes towards this race I think we can win.