Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters, 7/30 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (37)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Stevens isn’t dead yet — no doubt about it. This is the third poll confirming the incredible closeness of this race (releases by Moore Information and Ivan Moore being the other two).
It’s clear that even with the taint of corruption, Stevens is still gonna be one tough sumbitch to beat. Let’s hope for a conviction.
Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, McCain is now utterly wrecking shop in Alaska: 64-33. Not very surprising.
While there are obvious differences between MT and AK and between the tribuliations of Uncle Ted and C. Montana Burns, there are more than a few parallels here.
1) scandal-tarred incumbent who may have outstayed his welcome
2) challenger who is considered to be a rising star in the state and can lay claim to an impressive record in office (Begich more so as mayor than Tester as MT Senate Pres)
3) transpiring in a state not normally known for friendliness to Dems (though MT has a much healthier state party)
and Stevens falls back down after the excitement. Maybe the bounce is from winning the primary (which almost every time fades) or a scandal fatigue(which after a month + of low talk about the scandal and the evidential heating up of it as the trial begins) that bounce would fall back down at first and then downgrade once the scandal gets refreshed.
Besides Stevens getting a full acquittal is that Alaska voters may be willing to dump one of Ted and Don, but not part with both of them. I have been afraid that some voters could be prone to dump one of them — more likely the rough Young, over the beloved Stevens, who many Alaskans view as a statesman. Let’s hope this does not happen.
In terms of the Conrad Burns comparison, that’s a good one, and interestingly Alaska’s PVI is pretty identical to Montana’s (I think it is R+14 to R+13). I think a key difference is that Ted is beloved in Alaska, and has been since 1968. The guy has never gotten below 60 percent or whatever it is. Conversely, Burns got something like 52 percent in 1988 when he knocked over John Melcher, won easily six years later, and then barely beat an unknown Brian Schweizer in 2000 (a presidential year). In other words, while they liked Burns, he was never beloved like Alaskans adore their corrupt SOB Teddie.
“Bonus finding: With Palin on the ticket, McCain is now utterly wrecking shop in Alaska: 64-33. Not very surprising.”
Am I the only one who cared enough to say that I find this annoying that they did this to us? I mean, had they picked Huckabee he’d merely have made Arkansas hard to win, but we were closer in AK than in AR, IIRC.
Then again, if I scheme crazily like this, then I should only expect our enemies to do the same.