Rasmussen (9/8, likely voters, 8/20 in parens):
Tom Udall (D): 51 (52)
Steve Pearce (R): 44 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)
Republicans are coming home for Steve Pearce — that much is clear from the crosstabs. Pearce now enjoys 86% support from Republicans, up significantly from 77% in July. This isn’t that surprising — with groups like the Club For Growth beaning Udall, the GOP was bound to rally the base.
We still feel very confident about this race, and SSP rates it as Likely Democratic. With no help from the NRSC, Pearce has extremely slim odds barring a major stumble by Tom Udall.
Bonus finding: John McCain is nosing Obama by 49-47 in the same poll.
“Pearce now leads 50% to 38% among those voters. Last month, Udall had a 48% to 39% lead.”
Urgh. What the hell is going on?
Rasmussen has Obama back ahead nationally for the first time post-convention. And Rasmussen has a habit of being one of the more favorable GOP pollsters in national polls.
Because in New Mexico, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a good 10-12 points (there are a sizeable number of Reagan Democrats in the southern part of the state), so that could also be a factor (I know that Rasmussen does weigh party registration, but I don’t know how they do it either).
Personally, I have decided that Rasmussen and SUSA are not worth paying attention to especially when they conveniently do all this polling within 1-5 days of the end of the RNC
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
I’ve always favored initiatives like this one and Oregon’s law allowing physician assisted suicide, but I have to say I’m surprised this initiative has THAT much support even in a liberal-leaning state.
I really have a hard time believing polls that do not publish full crosstabs like SUSA. I think they are a full 5 points or so off. Most polls have been showing Obama up 5-7. Assuming McCain gets a 2 point bump (better then the average zero point bump he got overall in the west) Obama would be up by around 3.
And Udall would be up by about 12. Which is about where I think this race is.
Rasmussen didn’t post a number with or without leaners.
It’s only a one-point tightening, but is Udall not responding to the C for G ad blitz–maybe that’s why the NRSC has pulled out.
Palin has affected races downballot, the Dems will be really lucky to get more 3-4 more Senate seats. Bottom line, this isn’t a Democratic year anymore.
I’m waiting for a MO-Gov poll. That could be a good indicator of Palinmania, as Missouri is one of the most socially conservative states in the country.
Heya all –
(disclosure: I’m Tom Udall’s internet director)
We’re not freaking down here, either. There are certianly some weirdness in the poll – but honestly, NM races are ALWAYS tight. Even with the NRSC pulling out, there are tons of national dollars flowing in down here carpetbombing for Pearce (e.g. US Chamber of Commerce, Club for Growth, American Energy Alliance)… So our COH advantage isn’t what it looks like.
Feel free to contact me if you all need anything from down here. 🙂
steve olson
internet guy
Tom Udall
AIM: skyleolson
solson@tomudall.com