Anzalone-Lizst for Linda Stender (8/20-25):
Linda Stender (D): 36
Leonard Lance (R): 33
Michael Hsing (I): 9
Tom Abrams (I): 2
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Hsing is a Republican councilman from Bridgewater who is running as an independent, and Abrams, who ran on the “Withdraw Our Troops Now” line in 2006 (might as well have been the “Stay In Iraq Forever” line, but I digress), is again running as an anti-war independent. Without those two pretenders on the ballot, Stender leads Lance by 43-42.
Up the ballot, this district is incredibly tight, with a slight GOP lean: McCain leads Obama by 45-43. It’s worth mentioning that Bush carried New Jersey’s 7th twice — by a single point in 2000, and six points four years later. Looks like it could be another close one. I’ve been told that the DCCC has just gone up on the air in this district with a negative spot against Lance.
I’m still trying to obtain some key info about this poll — including its margin of error and the date lines, and will update this post accordingly once I get the details. (Update: Got it.)
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
But I refuse to believe there are THAT many undecides. Both candidates are already well-known and Stender ran in 2006.
Complaining about how party affiliation won’t show up on the MS-Sen ballot. Party affiliation, in polls, has hurt Musgrove. Why are they complaining? On top of it, it follows the law to not have party affiliation there. It isn’t some Republican swindle job.
I think that’s about where we are at. A few points ahead and we’ve got more money to spend. We should be good here.
Enter this race. He will siphon off votes from Lance-R.
Kean-R won Bridgewater by 1,920 votes in his run against Corzine in 2006.
Stender from her ’06 run, and Lance because he is a longtime and well-respected moderate state senator. If the NRCC had half a brain, they would invest heavily in NJ-03 and NJ-07, as neither will be cakewalks for us despite the quality of our candidates.
This district is interesting, as it has both very urban parts in the east (Union County area which is heavily Dem), and rural parts in the west (Hunterdon County which is farm country akin to something you’d see in the midwest and is pretty red).
If I had to handicap, I like our chances better in NJ-03 because Adler is such a good candidate, he has fundraised incredibly, and his opponent is not near the quality of Lance. Still, NJ-03’s own unique geography will make our life tough.
I wouldn’t dismiss the 9% Hsing got. With both major party candidates having well publicized names, all they have to show is only about one-third each. Lots of people are just tired of the choices. An outsider may well break in.