SurveyUSA (9/10-11, likely voters, 8/13-14 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 40 (39)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (46)
Dean Barkley (I): 14 (-)
Undecided: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
SurveyUSA has generally given more favorable margins for Coleman than Rasmussen (the only two outfits that regularly release polls of this contest), in part perhaps based on a sample of younger voters who are more pro-GOP than you might expect. So while it might be tempting to say that Franken is performing well in the face of a funky cross-sample, I’d prefer to wait for SUSA to release the poll’s crosstabs to pick this one apart. UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Look like SUSA finally solved the young voter problem — in this poll, Franken leads 48-33 among 18-34 year-olds.
Note: In the August poll, Dean Barkley’s name wasn’t explicitly mentioned, but “Other” gobbled up 11% of the vote.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 49-47 in the poll, the same margin that SUSA showed here in August.
(Via MN Publius)
If this is any indication, we can expect Barkley to be a blessing rather than a curse, if he continues to eat away at Coleman’s lead.
If I’d have to guess the outlook here, Franken still needs 46% or so. I’d doubt Barkley breaks 10% on election day.
And I suspect Obama will end up winning by a minimum of 5 points, probably 7 or greater. That should give Franken a boost.
Really, really, really good news.
Obama is going to win by a lot more then 2 in Minnesota. And if Fraken is tied and Obama up two?
This could be a big win!
BTW for what it’s worth I think SUSA’s likely voter screen may be screening out many younger voters. I believe SUSA uses being registered to vote as part of their screen, since in Minnesota we have same day registration and there is no real need to pre-register many young people who never voted before but intend to vote are getting screened out.
but what’s the Independence Party’s “base” in MN? Like, who would they be siphoning off votes from in the GE?
This poll must be wrong, because Franken is the worst possible pick the people of Minnesota could have ever picked…seriously guys, he’s gonna lose by at least 15 points. This poll is utter bunk! BUNK I TELL YOU!!!!111!!!!!111!!1!!!!!???!11!1//??
The crosstables are looking good for Dems so far.
The poll oversampled Men by 2 points, and since women vote more for Democrats, (probably because democrats allow women to control their bodies and want to give them equal pay for equal work and other issues) this would give Obama and Franken a little boost.
Also the party ID might be a little off, in 2004 the Dems had a +3 in part ID, and this poll shows them with a +8 part ID, meaning from 2004-2008 Dems only gained +5, when national they’ve gotten around +8-10. So this poll might under sample Democrat voters.
So overall this polls is good news for dems.
The Minneapolis Star Tribune will be publishing a new Senate Poll for Monday’s editions.
http://www.startribune.com/
They will probably have it up on their website within the next couple hours but I have to be at work in 7 hours so I don’t think I will stay up to see it.
The Star Trib did Tease the poll though.