Star Tribune (9/10-12, likely voters, 5/12-15 in parens):
Al Franken (DFL): 37 (44)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41 (51)
Dean Barkley (I): 13 (-)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
With Barkley in the mix, Coleman’s lead has shrunk to four points from seven in May. Some more numbers: Coleman’s job approval is pretty poor, clocking in at 42% (down from 45% in May). Still, Franken’s personal unfavorables continue to be higher than his favorability rating among voters. One piece of good news for Franken is that, by a 62-25 margin, voters consider Coleman as someone who “follows President Bush’s lead” as opposed to being an independent thinker. That association will be driven hard and heavy from now until November.
The results are fairly close to a recent SUSA poll released on Saturday that showed Coleman leading by 41-40, with Barkley picking up 14%. It seems that Barkley is hoping that Franken and Coleman will nuke each other to death in the air wars, allowing him to get to 35 or 36% based on a strong debate performance. Can’t say that I think such a scenario is likely, although his impact on this race will not be negligible.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
How many are schedueled?
Would he caucus with the Democrats or Republicans in the Senate in the unlikely event that he won? Or just be an independent, although I’m not sure how that works under the rules of the Senate for committee assignment and such.