The Feldman Group for Jim Himes (9/17-18, likely voters, August in parens):
Jim Himes (D): 45 (39)
Chrissy Shays (R-inc): 45 (51)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Himes has been hammering Chris Shays in recent weeks over financial issues and his boneheaded insistence that “our economy is fundamentally strong”, and it looks like his strategy has been paying off. Only 36% of voters say that Shays deserves re-election, while 46% say that it’s time for someone new. That’s bad news for Shays.
Also ominous for the Shayster is Obama’s popularity in the district: he crushes McCain by a 56-33 margin.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Himes should win this seat on Obama’s coattails and hold it for many years.
One less Republican in the North East, and one step closer to make the Republicans a regional party.
I’m hoping that the Republicans will be shut out of the EC votes in the North East this time around (should be easy to do), be nearly shut out in the Midwest (just Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio are holdouts, but Obama has a shot to win all three), lose their strangle hold on the South (Virginia, North Carolina and Florida could flip), as well as the South West (New Mexico has a strong likelihood to flip, while Colorado is close behind. For that matter Nevada could go as well). The only place where the Republican will sweep is the Mountain West, but even then Montana isn’t exactly safe, and Alaska could have flipped without Palin on the ticket.
With gains in the both chambers, we could see the Republican base squeezed into the south and mountain west without any significant representation in most of the country.
Needless to say, NARPAC’s half million is hardly helpful. I hope the DCCC will match it.