Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Glenn Nye (9/21-22, likely voters, 5/6-8 in parens):
Glenn Nye (D): 40 (32)
Thelma Drake (R-inc): 45 (48)
Undecided: 15 (20)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Very nice trend for Glenn Nye the candidate guy. After airing some bio ads, Nye’s name recognition has shot up to 49% — more than five times higher than it was in May, but also showing some major room to grow.
Drake’s been firing blanks at Nye in recent days over a D.C. residence that he maintained with his brother while serving as a foreign service officer in Iraq. In Drake’s view, Nye’s been “gaming” the D.C. tax system for a discount. The Virginian-Pilot tears Drake to shreds for this attack:
Here’s the problem with that charge: Nye owns the house with his brother, who has lived there except while the State Department employed him in Iraq to work on reconstruction and job creation. Nye himself was also in Baghdad – creating a jobs program for Iraqis – during the period that Drake’s campaign argues he was cheating the D.C. government.
In other words, Drake is criticizing the Nye brothers for claiming as a primary residence the house they left behind while serving their country in a war zone. What the Nyes did will sound very familiar to the heavily military voters of the 2nd District.
It’s no wonder that Drake has a net negative job rating (45-47) and that her favorables are only at 42%.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican. The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Nye will likely benefit from Obama’s operation in Virginia, which will require coming close in this district.
Most of the attention regarding the Democratic resurgence in Virginia has been focused on NOVA, but this area of the state also has played an important role — Warner, Kaine, and Webb probably could not have won statewide without improved showings here compared to Democrats past. And it’s a beautiful little corner of the world.
We’re now at the point over the next 10 days or so where I think some races that looked potentially competitive will fall off the radar, and a few somewhat ignored races will emerge — hopefully this will be one of them.
I love it!