Anzalone-Liszt for Dina Titus (9/21-24, likely voters, 7/23-28 in parens):
Dina Titus (D): 46 (43)
Jon Porter (R-inc): 37 (39)
Other: 6 (10)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
How much trouble is Jon Porter in? Well, just look at the favorable/unfavorable numbers. Titus posts a 50-37 popularity score, while Porter is less loved at 44-41 — his favorables down four and unfavorables up seven since July.
Back in June, Mason-Dixon released a poll showing Porter leading by a mere three points, but perhaps the most important number is this one: since 2006, Democrats have expanded their voter registration lead in Nevada’s 3rd CD from 2,900 voters to 25,445 in August.
The full polling memo is available below the fold.
UPDATE: Porter’s own internal (Public Opinion Strategies, 9/23-24) shows him leading Titus by 41-39. Weak.
If POS shows Porter with only a two point lead, he’s done. This is now a lean-dem seat in my book. Republicans don’t do themselves many favors resorting to Public Opinion Strategies unless they are looking for a slanted poll that shows them leading.
Porter is toast, methinks.
This race is more than just another notch in our majority. Winning here gives us the majority in the Nevada House delegation. If there is a tie, the delegation would cast one vote. Therefore, if Titus were to win and assuming she and Shelly Berkeley would vote for Obama, then Obama would get Nevada. That’s really important considering that we probably can’t rely on all of our delegations to vote for Obama, ie. both Dakotas and Alaska (should Berkowitz win).