Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters, 5/20-21):
Gary Trauner (D): 42 (44)
Cynthia Lummis (R): 42 (41)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Here’s our first look in many months at the race for Wyoming’s at large House seat, being vacated by the always-charming Barbara Cubin. The poll shows a tied game between Gary Trauner, who came very close to shocking Cubin in 2006, and former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. (The previous poll was taken long before Wyoming’s GOP primary, where Lummis defeated Mark Gordon, who was considered to be the less-divisive pick.)
There are two possible schools of thought on the state of this race: first, this isn’t that good, because Trauner has lost ground from last time even though now it’s confirmed he’s running against Lummis (who, personality-wise, seems to take after Cubin).
On the other hand, it may be good, since this follows in the wake of adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, who plays (or played?) uniquely well in the red states of the West and should have theoretically, via coattails, knocked Trauner out of contention. The same sample shows McCain leading Obama 57-36, still a mighty downdraft for Trauner to fight against, but an indication that Dems are running much better in the Equality State than in 2004 (where Kerry got dismantled 69-29).
I hate to throw some cold water on what is an amazing poll result, but I fear that this poll really undersamples Republicans. The poll’s composition was:
24% D
48% R
28% I/U
This does not really mirror the statewide registration split, which is around 27-63-10. Furthermore, according to the CNN 2006 exit poll from Trauner’s last race, it was 28-55-17.
I know Democratic registration has shown an uptick this year, but according to the Wyoming SoS’s site, it is still over 60%. If this is true, this poll is probably not entirely accurate. Do people agree/disagree? Am I looking at the wrong numbers?
That being said, if it is right, it is obviously a superb finding. Gary is going to need to win at least a quarter of the GOP vote, and 70% of unaffiliated (he got 71% in 2006), to squeeze out a win, so he may be on the right track.
I’ve met Trauner and he’s a terrific candidate. For those thinking about contributions, a little money goes a long way in Wyoming….what a payoff it would be if Trauner won this race.