The Republican Meltdown of 2008

The last issue John McCain wanted to run on was the economy.  In fact, Republicans spent their first full summer in Washington pushing their election agenda: DRILL, DRILL, DRILL.  It seems that Republicans may have indeed accomplished something for once.  They’re slowly starting to DRILL themselves out of office courteousy of the Financial Meltdown of 2008.

As a result of the financial bailout and the thousands of jobs that have been or are expected to be lost, let’s look at incumbents who have become more vulnerable as a result:

Mark Kirk (IL), Chris Shays (CT), and Dave Reichert (WA).  All three represent Democratic affluent suburbs of major cities.  Chicago is sufferring the same woes as New York’s Wall Street and the collapse of Washington Mutual, based in Seattle, will translate into massive job losses for the Seattle area.  (This also does not translate well for Gov. Gregoire’s re-election).  Expect supporters for all three to sit this election out.  All three also have no choice, but to support a Wall Street bailout.

Scott Garrett (NJ).  He has proven to be an ineffective congressman since taking office.  If he fails to support a Wall Street bailout, where many of his affluent constituents hold jobs, then expect this race to change dramatically.

Bill Sali (ID), Jean Schmidt (OH), and Marilyn Musgrave (CO).  All three are infamous for pushing social agendas throughout their congressional careers.  Now that the economy has become the central focus and none of the three are expected to respond correctly, expect all three to find PINK slips come November.

Robin Hayes (NC).  Trade deals do indeed SUCK.  Now the electorate, with a large African-American turnout, will finally push Hayes to the curb.

Mark Walberg (MI) – The economy is going downward and Michigan has been sufferring greatly.  Walberg is gone already.

Jon Porter (NV), Ileana Ros-Lehtninen, Mario Diaz-Balart (FL), and Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL).  All four represent areas with dwindling home values and skyrocketing insurance rates (in the case of Florida).  While Mario may survive, don’t expect Lincoln to prevail.  Ros-Lehtninen’s opponent has also sharpened her attacks against Ros-Lehtninen.  A ballot measure banning gay marriage statewide may increase voter turnout in South Beach and Key West, against Ros-Lehtninen by a constituency she has carried in the past.  In short, Porter is fried.

Don Young (AK) and Tom Feeney (FL).  Both are infamous for their ties to lobbyists.  A change in Congress will ensure both are swept back home.  I expect that Young staffers are already submitting resumes online.

Tom Latham (IA) – Obama is clearly doing well in Iowa and McCain is against ethanol subsidies.  The district is also Democratic leaning and has several colleges.  Who are you supporting again Tom?  

Michelle Bachmann (MN) – She spent her summer visiting ANWR, instead of her own district.  The Independent Party clearly wants her gone, as does the Democratic Party.  She wanted to run on DRILL here..DRILL now, but that all seems to have vanished.  Bachmann is so entrenched with Big Oil that she even stated that oil drilling should fix the economy.  How did voters even place a nutjob like this in office?

Lee Terry (NE), Phil English (PA), Ric Keller (FL), Sam Graves (MO), Randy Kuhl (NY), and Mark Souder (IN). All six have shown vulnerabilities in the past.  Including close races against poorly funded challengers or ineffective constituent services.  Changing demographics accompanied by an increase in Obama turnout could spell the end for all six.

Republicans that are currently not considered extremely vulnerable, yet could indeed be brought down with the financial crisis (due to their closeness with the Bush administration and proximity to areas being affected by the economic turndown):

– David Dreier (CA)

– Judy Biggert (IL)

– Peter King (NY)

– Jim Gerlach (PA)

– Charles Dent (PA)

– Bill Young (FL)

And then there is the infamous Bush “foot soldiers” who could indeed be placing themselves in perilous waters:

– Adam Putnam (FL) – His district currently has a Democratic voter registration advantage.

– John Shadegg (AZ) – He may actually get to retire early as he desired.

– Stephen Buyer (IN) – If seen as hijacking the bailout, Buyer could pay the consequences.

Of course there are vulnerable Democrats as well.  The five most vulnerable (in order of vulnerability):

1. Nick Lampson

2. Nancy Boyda

3. Tim Mahoney

4. Carol Shea-Porter

5. Chris Carney

**Kanjorski is vulnerable, yet he should narrowly get by.

As for the Senate, expect Republican losses galore:

– Ted Stevens indictment will spell the end for him.

– Libby Dole wanted to run on a “Hate the Hispanic” campaign, but clearly voters are not interested.  Bye bye Libby.

– Gordon Smith will have great difficulty distancing himself from Bush.  Ohhh…too BAD!!!

– The breakthrough Franken needed was Norm Coleman and his failure to regulate the Bush presidency.  Expect an upward trend toward Franken in the next polling, yet very little upward.

– John Sununu should contact Santorum and see how it felt to lose so badly.

– Mitch McConnell is entrenched with Bush and will not survive.  Expect polls to show Mitch behind in the coming weeks and early voting already had begun on the eclipse of economic disaster.  (Expect the DSCC to pull out of Maine and show Mitch more attention).

Democrats have essentially already secured VA, NM, and CO.  A 9 seat pickup is now REALITY.  

However, expect Lautenberg (NJ) to turn out to be more vulnerable than Landrieu (LA).