Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):
Christine Jennings (D): 31
Vern Buchanan (R-inc): 43
Other: 6
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±5%)
43% is a weak place to be for any incumbent, and just take a look an Vern’s fave/unfave rating: 37-42. Not good. On the other hand, Christine Jenning’s favorables aren’t exactly hot either: 32-38. You never like to see a challenger with a net negative favorable rating.
A recent Feldman Group poll showed Jennings trailing by four points, with Buchanan at the 44% mark. Popping open the hood, R2K shows that McCain is leading Obama by 51-38 in the district. Considering that Bush beat Kerry by 12% here in 2004, we’re not seeing any evidence of a blue shift in this district based on this poll.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
or Obama in this district, according to this poll.
Schneider’s independent run and Jennings having her own flaws will add up to a missed opportunity, I think. Vern will still be vulnerable in two years as long as there isn’t a huge swing toward Republicans in ’10. Hopefully a better candidate will be put forth here.
I do have to ask, though if the partisan breakdown for this poll adds up. R45%, D33%, I22%? It’s a Republican district, but I didn’t think they had a double digit advantage.
how many of them represent votes that get tossed due to machine errors?
I live in the district just north of FL-13, and the ads here in 2006 were nasty and everywhere.
Jennings ran a good campaign, and probably did win but the machines here are flawed, it was on the local news for months after.
Her primary opponent is running as an independent unfortunately, and only adds to our problem. Jennings is personally wealthy, though, and has business experience so she is able to run her campaign without too much spending from the DCCC
Buchanan as of late has had lawsuits filed against him and his company. Look for this combined with the bad economic news to possibly throw Jennings over the top in the Democratic year. She has economic experience from the 90’s… if she can get that message out to voters in the Sarasota/Bradenton area then she’s got it.
The comment above me relating to Jennings’ other problems were due to the lawsuit alleged that Jennings collected but failed to file and submit payroll taxes collected from her campaign staff during the 2006 election. She publicly stated that it was an error and she cleared it up.
This news probably would have hurt her a lot more in this election, but Vern Buchanan has been sucking up the media attention lately because of his lawsuits.