As we all know by now, the DSCC is heavily courting former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008–and, remarkably, Warner is not ruling it out, even if longtime incumbent John Warner decides not to retire.
What this creates is a possible dream scenario in Virginia: John Warner, having survived a close call by a self-funding Mark Warner in 1996, had a difficult enough time beating back a challenge against a political unknown, winning by only 5 points. At the time, the elder Warner remarked: “It was tough – a tough two years.” The conventional wisdom is that John Warner, who will be 81 in 2008, would not mind another term in the Senate–he just doesn’t want to campaign for it.
So, Mark Warner enters the race. John Warner gets the spooks and announces an early retirement, making way for his preferred successor: 11th district Rep. Tom Davis (R). In fact, the WaPo has already indicated that Warner has signaled Davis to get ready:
However, some doubt John Warner’s commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. “Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready,” the source said.
Davis would be a pretty strong candidate for the Republicans: he currently represents one of their weaker areas of the state–the rapidly diversifying D.C. suburbs in Prince William and Fairfax counties. This is the one region that has been nudging Virginia closer and closer to the left. Take a look at the district’s chronolgy:
2004: John Kerry wins 49.29% of the district’s vote to George Bush’s 49.92%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) wins 55.67% of the vote to Jerry Kilgore’s 42.42%
2006: Jim Webb (D) wins 54.69% of the vote to George Allen’s 44.20%
So Davis could be strong statewide against an average Virginia Democrat, but he wouldn’t stand a chance against Mark Warner, who retired with a mind-boggling 80% approval rate. And with the recent robust victories of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the 11th, Democrats would clearly be well-poised to capture this open seat with a strong candidate. Any idea who we’d run for it?
Man oh man, what a glorious twofer it would be: a pick-up in both the Senate and House–both of which will be badly-needed to protect and expand the Democratic majorities. If Chuck Schumer pulls this off (and he has had some stellar success in the past in this area–see Missouri, 2006), he could very well be elevated to demigod status.
and I think John Warner will blink.
If Mark Warner really doesn’t think that he’ll be the 2008 nominee’s running mate, and he still wants to serve, he’ll go for the Senate seat.
And I think you’re right that John Warner would happily take another term if given to him, but he doesn’t want to have to campaign for it.
M. Warner will walk to a Senate victory, and Tom Davis will martyr himself and give up his seat. Even if M. Warner is the nominee, and Davis knows he’ll lose, he’s been too “groomed” to take the reins from J. Warner to back down.
I do smell a two-fer.
The only question, then, is who we run for Gov. in 2009. Maybe Senators Jim Webb and MARK Warner will get behind Harris Miller.
Anyone know if Leslie Byrne would be up for another try at her old seat if Davis leaves? It’d be great to have another victim of 1994 back in the House, and with the changing demographics she’d probably be able to hold the seat quite a bit longer this time.
By the way, I lived in what is now VA-11 in high school (it was Jim Moran’s district then), and can remember all too well how Tom Davis got his start riding the wave of a tax revolt in Fairfax. He was just as much of a phony charlatan then as now, and I certainly do look forward to the possibility of Mark Warner finishing him off at last!
Byrne would be excellent. But a lot of folks here in Fairfax County think that Gerry Connolly (chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors) wants the seat and will probably get the nomination if and when Davis runs for US Senate.
and loses, would he be expecting to pivot and win the governorship one year later? He’d have an even stronger challenge on his right for that, but I can fully imagine Davis winning the primary and general. Creigh Deeds could run against him, and maybe win, but I’d put odds on Davis at that point.
Which is probably a fine outcome. Is Virginia really prepared to give both Senate seats and three consecutive governorships to the Dems? Hopefully we’ll win with a strong candidate in the LtGov and AG races, and then win the governorship again after Davis. That’s a state of affairs I can totally live with.
Now Mark Warner just has to run. Cmon Mark!