NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground

PPP (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (44)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (43)

Michael Munger (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hmmmm. While most pollsters are seeing Barack Obama and Kay Hagan suddenly and surprisingly pulling away in North Carolina, it also seems that most pollsters are also seeing Democrat Bev Perdue fall behind Pat McCrory in the open North Carolina gubernatorial race.

What’s significant is that PPP is the pollster that has been most favorable to Perdue; this is the first PPP poll showing her trailing McCrory. This is also apparently the same sample that gave Hagan that staggering 8-point edge, so there seems to be some troublesome ticket splitting that’ll need to be overcome.

38 thoughts on “NC-Gov: Perdue Loses Ground”

  1. There is no excuse for Obama and Hagen to be tied or better in their races in NC and Perdue losing.  Maybe a couple joint Obama-Hagen-Perdue events in NC would help?

  3. Perdue has been outspent for the last few weeks (months?), but she has raised a significant more amount of money.

    The question is, will her money dump in the final weeks be enough or will the message not work?  And how is she going to keep people from voting Obama/McCrory, especially during early vote in places like Charlotte?

  4. I live close enough to NC (30 miles inside of the SC border)to catch some commercials, and I see a fair number of anti-Perdue ads from McCrory.  Also, the Dem’s are the long-time party in control.  

    McCrory is popular in Charlotte and will cut heavily into the D vote there.  He has been mayor for 14 years and the city has prospered under his tenure (yesterday’s Wachovia news notwithstanding). I have followed Charlotte’s urban development since the ’80’s, and he is easily the best mayor during that time.  If I lived in NC, I would likely vote for him.  Disclosure: I know virtuely nothing about Perdue’s record or platform, if I did, perhaps I would support her, but perhaps not.  

    Obama/ Hagan coattails are Perdue’s best hope frankly.  

  5. or Washington.  We need every governorship possible to have a fair shot at redistricting in 2011.  We are also likely to have a pretty bad year in 2010 in governor’s races, especially if Obama wins.  We will probably lose the open seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Kansas and almost certainly lose Wyoming.  We should pick up California, Nevada, Minnesota, Hawaii, and Connecticut if Rell retires.  If we lose a seat this year, we will likely lose our majority in governorships in 2010.  

  6. The thing here is that McCrory is very popular among Democrats in the Charlotte area, which is the largest population center in the state.  I’m sure that many, many Charlotte Democrats are supporting Obama, Hagan, and McCrory.  In the rest of the state Perdue may be doing fine, but it will be hard to overcome underperforming in Charlotte.

    Plus she’s underperforming with African Americans statewide (ironic, since their support was crucial to her in the primary).  I suspect the Charlotte thing is to blame here, too, since a lot of blacks in that area like McCrory.

  7. McCrory’s done an impressive job of blanketing the state with his “Status Quo Bev”.  Basically, he blames everything Bev for everythign wrong in the world, presents himself as the agent of change, and picks up all that Change-y goodness from Obama.

    Bev’s got almost no presence, and no consistent defense or attack on McCrory.

    We need James Carville down here, stat.

  8. Both of these polls are within the 3 point margin of error.  In an era when races are being polled all the time by multiple organizations, I think we can get too caught up in a small change here or there.

    Now, why Purdue seems to be underperforming Kay Hagan and perhaps Obama, that’s another question.

  9. Perdue’s campaign is really working email lists for campaign contributuions; I’ve lost track of how many appeals I’ve deleted (I’m pretty much tapped out for this cycle). Three this week alone, and it’s only Wednesday.

    That said, if I did have any money to spend in North Carolina, it would go to Larry Kissell or Kay Hagen.  If we can’t get Larry into the House this cycle, I’m afraid there is no hope for any future candidacy. It was a bleeding misfortune that he just missed in 2006; that was his best shot, with surprise on his side. The element working for him this cycle is that the national GOP is overextended financially.

    Larry Kissell is on the ActBlue slate below, if anyone has spare change still jingling in a pocket:

    http://www.actblue.com/page/20…

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