Research 2000 for South Bend Tribune/WSBT (9/28-30, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 46
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4%)
The Indiana governor’s race was starting to slide off the map, with GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels leading Democratic ex-Representative Jill Long Thompson by double digits in most polls over the last few months (with the exception of a 4-point spread in a Selzer poll several weeks ago). However, R2K’s first poll of this race shows a dead heat.
Is it an outlier? Is it another indication that the economic chaos is lifting every Democratic boat, even JLT’s leaky dinghy? Or is it a sign that Obama’s uncontested ground game in Indiana is not only turning Indiana into a swing state but generating strong coattails (the same sample gives McCain a lead of only 46-45)?
I want to believe this is a toss-up race, but I’m not convinced. My guess is that Thompson would lose by high single digits right now.
That said, for this poll and the whole slew of them, the country is so unstabalized right now by the economic situation, that we may have to wait for a bit for things to sink in. It certainly is possible that there could be a tidal wave that sweeps up everyone with an R next to their name on the ballot.