Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/13 in parentheses):
Bev Perdue (D): 46 (51)
Pat McCrory (R): 50 (45)
Michael Munger (L): 2
(MoE: ±4%)
Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):
Bev Perdue (D): 33 (35)
Pat McCrory (R): 37 (37)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Two new polls give more bad news for Bev Perdue, who seems to be slipping in her quest to hold the open North Carolina gubernatorial seat for the Dems. Rasmussen shows a big reversal from mid-August, when Perdue seemed to be at her peak. Elon University also shows Perdue losing a little ground from several weeks ago.
Elon University (9/29-10/2, residents, 9/15-16 in parentheses):
Kay Hagan (D): 37 (35)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35 (35)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
On the plus side, the same Elon University poll sees Kay Hagan gaining ground in the Senate race. (Bear in mind that the Elon poll is rife with methodological problems: it’s a sample only of residents, and respondents are only asked for each race whether they’re supporting the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. Nevertheless, their margins seem generally in line with numbers we’re seeing elsewhere, with the presidential race in NC tied at 39-39.)
Nah, they’re a university now. Even changed the town’s name to just “Elon” from “Elon College.”
Folks, Bev has run a terrible General Election campaign. I voted for her primary opponent, Treasurer Richard Moore, despite the fact that he ran a terrible Primary race. But, like most, I quickly fell in line behind Bev.
She’s not the brightest crayon in the box and has never impressed many people. On top of that, she’s a total “good ole boy” and McCrory is slamming her on it.
Her only responses have been to try to convince people to vote against McCrory and not for her. I hope she starts using the tons of money she has more effectively. If we lose this, and potentially the state senate, our redistricting will be not so good come 2011.
It’s a good margin, but still tenuous.
District 8 – Soles is in ethical trouble.
District 9 – Boseman is in ethical trouble.
District 46 – Dalton is running for LTG, popular GOP State Rep. Debbie Clary is likely pickup.
District 47 – Joe Sam Queen can’t keep his mouth shut, will probably lose again.
Districts 24 and 45 – Tough anyway, Foriest and Goss shouldn’t have won in 2006 based on demographics. Goss (my senator) has a terrible opponent so he should be OK. Foriest will be tougher, but seems to be doing alright.
We lose those, there goes the majority right there – it’s back to 25/25. I’m not saying these are all done for, but we’re definitely on the defense this year I can’t think of anywhere we’re on the offense in the Senate; however the House looks fine and we won’t lose it (might gain!)
Thats why it’s uber-important to vote for Dalton for Lt. Governor!
Unfortunately I think Troxler will be fine. I’m worried about Dalton a little – he’s not spending what he has and Pittenger is on the air. He’s spending his personal wealth, too.
Berry has her stinkin’ name and face in the elevators, so I’m worried about that, although after having worked with Mary Fant Donnan, I think she would be fantastic in that position and could pull it off – we’ll just have to see.
“Leslie” Merritt is toast, despite using his full name once every four years to try and fool voters into thinking he’s a woman.